Semi-autonomous colony - Revision history

Michel Lamontagne: /* What if support from Earth stops? */

2023-11-07T14:07:43Z

What if support from Earth stops?

Michel Lamontagne: /* What if support from Earth stops? */

2023-05-23T18:33:36Z

What if support from Earth stops?

Michel Lamontagne: /* Minimum viable population */

2022-11-27T21:13:45Z

Minimum viable population

Michel Lamontagne: /* Minimum viable population */

2022-11-27T21:08:27Z

Minimum viable population

Michel Lamontagne: /* Minimum viable population */

2022-11-27T21:06:54Z

Minimum viable population

Michel Lamontagne: /* Minimum viable population */

2022-11-27T21:03:35Z

Minimum viable population

Michel Lamontagne: /* Minimum viable population */

2022-11-27T21:02:50Z

Minimum viable population

Michel Lamontagne at 20:55, 27 November 2022

2022-11-27T20:55:13Z

Michel Lamontagne at 20:53, 27 November 2022

2022-11-27T20:53:59Z

Michel Lamontagne at 20:52, 27 November 2022

2022-11-27T20:52:06Z

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 ==What if support from Earth stops?==
-If the shipments were to stop, the colony might be able to sustain itself for some time, based upon the lo-tech equipment. Some people might then choose to return to Earth if [[space access]] was possible.  However, without access to Earth, the colony might simply fail. The minimum size of a viable settlement is unknown, but it might be quite large.
+If the shipments were to stop, the colony might be able to sustain itself for some time, based upon the lo-tech equipment. Some people might then choose to return to Earth if [[space access]] was possible.  However, without access to Earth, the colony will simply fail, eventually. The minimum size of a viable settlement is unknown, but it might be quite large.
 As an alternative to a low tech society, a reasonable precaution would be for the settlement to stock a strategic amount of supplies of essential elements or equipment.  The stockpile should be sufficient for the settlement to have the time required to develop local sources for the supplies.  For example, digging for cobalt on Mars might be uneconomical compared to shipping from Earth.  But if shipping from Earth stops, the settlement would develop local mines, whatever the cost, as they would become essential.  This way a higher technology settlement could be maintained.

@@ Line 14: / Line 14: @@
 ==What if support from Earth stops?==
-However, if the shipments were to stop, the colony might be able to sustain itself for the long run, based upon the lo-tech equipment. Some people may then choose to return to Earth if [[space access]] is possible.
+If the shipments were to stop, the colony might be able to sustain itself for some time, based upon the lo-tech equipment. Some people might then choose to return to Earth if [[space access]] was possible.  However, without access to Earth, the colony might simply fail. The minimum size of a viable settlement is unknown, but it might be quite large.
 As an alternative to a low tech society, a reasonable precaution would be for the settlement to stock a strategic amount of supplies of essential elements or equipment.  The stockpile should be sufficient for the settlement to have the time required to develop local sources for the supplies.  For example, digging for cobalt on Mars might be uneconomical compared to shipping from Earth.  But if shipping from Earth stops, the settlement would develop local mines, whatever the cost, as they would become essential.  This way a higher technology settlement could be maintained.

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 What is the minimum population on Mars that can maintain a high enough technology to live indefinitely with only local resources?
 This is highly dependent on the available technology, however some studies have been made in the similar case of generation ships for Interstellar travel and others have proposed values.
 *'''Genetically''', studies have shown that starting with sufficient diversity, the minimum viable genetic population is about one hundred individuals https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03856
@@ Line 27: / Line 28: @@
 *'''Aurora, Kim Stankey Robinson''' Robinson, for his novel, Robinson showed a population of about 10 000 failing at maintaining a viable technological society and having to return to Earth.
 *'''Elon Musk''' has proposed a target of one million people for a self sustaining civilisation.
-*'''Mchael Cain ''' has proposed three to five million people as a minimum number.<ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref>
+*'''Michael Cain ''' has proposed three to five million people as a minimum number.<ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref>
 Other expect the required population to be several tens if not hundreds of millions. <ref>https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/70880/minimum-population-for-a-high-tech-society</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>

@@ Line 27: / Line 27: @@
 *'''Aurora, Kim Stankey Robinson''' Robinson, for his novel, Robinson showed a population of about 10 000 failing at maintaining a viable technological society and having to return to Earth.
 *'''Elon Musk''' has proposed a target of one million people for a self sustaining civilisation.
-*'''Mchael Cain ''' has proposed three to five million people as a minimum number.<ref>https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/70880/minimum-population-for-a-high-tech-society</ref><ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>
+*'''Mchael Cain ''' has proposed three to five million people as a minimum number.<ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref>
 ==References==
 [[Category:Settlement Plans]]

@@ Line 27: / Line 27: @@
 *'''Aurora, Kim Stankey Robinson''' Robinson, for his novel, Robinson showed a population of about 10 000 failing at maintaining a viable technological society and having to return to Earth.
 *'''Elon Musk''' has proposed a target of one million people for a self sustaining civilisation.
-*'''xxx''' has proposed several million people. (The minimum number might be 50 million people? 500 million people?)  If a Martian colony was cut off from Earth, and had to survive indefinitely with a low population, it would likely not survive.<ref>https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/70880/minimum-population-for-a-high-tech-society</ref><ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>
+*'''Mchael Cain ''' has proposed three to five million people as a minimum number.<ref>https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/70880/minimum-population-for-a-high-tech-society</ref><ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>
 ==References==
 [[Category:Settlement Plans]]

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 As part of a [[colonization strategy]] it may be an advanced step in the colonization program.
+__NOTOC__
 ==Limitations of shipping==

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 A '''semi autonomous colony''' on [[Mars]] lives basically on its own production of [[energy]], [[food]] and [[air]], provided by imported technology from [[Earth]]. All vital systems are [[hi-tech versus lo-tech|lo-tech]] and can be maintained from [[local resources]]. Additional goods are regularly imported from Earth:
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 As an alternative to a low tech society, a reasonable precaution would be for the settlement to stock a strategic amount of supplies of essential elements or equipment.  The stockpile should be sufficient for the settlement to have the time required to develop local sources for the supplies.  For example, digging for cobalt on Mars might be uneconomical compared to shipping from Earth.  But if shipping from Earth stops, the settlement would develop local mines, whatever the cost, as they would become essential.  This way a higher technology settlement could be maintained.
-A huge population is needed for a self sustaining technological society.  (The minimum number might be 50 million people? 500 million people?)  If a Martian colony was cut off from Earth, and had to survive indefinitely with a low population, it would likely not survive.<ref>https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/70880/minimum-population-for-a-high-tech-society</ref><ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>
+==Minimum viable population==
 What is the minimum population on Mars that can maintain a high enough technology to live indefinitely with only local resources?
 This is highly dependent on the available technology, however some studies have been made in the similar case of generation ships for Interstellar travel (references).
@@ Line 29: / Line 27: @@
 *'''Aurora, Kim Stankey Robinson''' Robinson, for his novel, Robinson showed a population of about 10 000 failing at maintaining a viable technological society and having to return to Earth.
 *'''Elon Musk''' has proposed a target of one million people for a self sustaining civilisation.
-*'''xxx''' has proposed several million people.
+*'''xxx''' has proposed several million people. (The minimum number might be 50 million people? 500 million people?)  If a Martian colony was cut off from Earth, and had to survive indefinitely with a low population, it would likely not survive.<ref>https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/70880/minimum-population-for-a-high-tech-society</ref><ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>