Settlement Strategies - Revision history

Michel Lamontagne: /* Aspect of transportation and development */

2024-09-16T15:15:31Z

Aspect of transportation and development

Michel Lamontagne: /* Cost of transportation */

2024-09-16T15:08:31Z

Cost of transportation

RichardWSmith: /* Introduction */ Mars could support exploitation of the asteroids.

2024-09-16T13:58:35Z

Introduction: Mars could support exploitation of the asteroids.

RichardWSmith: /* Strategy 1: Minimum transport and intelligent self development */ Discussed local production.

2024-09-16T13:56:54Z

Strategy 1: Minimum transport and intelligent self development: Discussed local production.

RichardWSmith: /* Introduction */ Noted that very high price goods could be shipped from Mars.

2024-09-16T13:44:58Z

Introduction: Noted that very high price goods could be shipped from Mars.

Michel Lamontagne: /* Development goals */

2022-09-19T14:52:20Z

Development goals

Michel Lamontagne: /* Aspect of transport and development */

2022-09-19T14:46:40Z

Aspect of transport and development

Michel Lamontagne: /* Strategy 2: Independence at once */

2022-09-19T14:46:06Z

Strategy 2: Independence at once

Michel Lamontagne: /* Strategy 2: Independence at once */

2022-09-19T14:44:11Z

Strategy 2: Independence at once

Michel Lamontagne: /* Introduction */

2022-09-19T14:42:29Z

Introduction

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 ===Introduction===
-To get an idea of the transport costs of a physically independent industrial infrastructure, the current industrial infrastructure on Earth may be estimated as 1 billion workers and 100 tonnes of structure, equipment, and spare parts per worker -- round the total mass budget to 100 billion tonnes.  It currently costs $200,000 to land a kilogram on Mars.  Additional infrastructure is required for Mars (e.g. pressure vessels and agricultural illumination systems), so double the infrastructure required to 200 tonnes per worker.  That comes to 440 million trillion dollars.   To reduce this cost by one or two orders of magnitude by creative selection of industrial equipment and workers is probably easy: some of Earth's industry is redundant in terms of self-sufficiency and thus required only for a [[population]] of billions.  One or two orders of magnitude drop in transport costs may also be possible in the long term.  But this only reduces the cost to at least 44 thousand trillion dollars.  To reduce these costs to a reasonable sum, i.e. to the range of tens to hundreds of billions of dollars, requires radical reduction in the size of the industrial infrastructure required, which requires radical redesign of the technology (Strategy 1), or it requires further radical reductions in transport costs (Strategy 2), or a combination of both.
+To get an idea of the transport costs of a physically independent industrial infrastructure, the current industrial infrastructure on Earth may be estimated as 1 billion workers and 100 tonnes of structure, equipment, and spare parts per worker -- round the total mass budget to 100 billion tonnes.  It currently costs $200,000 to land a kilogram on Mars.  Additional infrastructure is required for Mars (e.g. pressure vessels and agricultural illumination systems), so double the infrastructure required to 200 tonnes per worker.  That comes to 440 million trillion dollars.   To reduce this cost by one or two orders of magnitude by creative selection of industrial equipment and workers is probably easy: some of Earth's industry is redundant in terms of self-sufficiency and thus required only for a [[population]] of billions.  One or two orders of magnitude drop in transport costs may also be possible in the long term.  But this only reduces the cost to at least 44 thousand trillion dollars.  To reduce these costs to a reasonable sum, i.e. to the range of tens to hundreds of billions of dollars, requires radical reduction in the size of the industrial infrastructure required, which requires radical redesign of the technology (Strategy 1), or it requires further radical reductions in transport costs (Strategy 2), or likely a combination of both.
 ===Strategy 1: Minimum transport and intelligent self development===

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 === Cost of transportation ===
-The [[cost of transportation]] to Mars is an essential metric in analysing a martian settlement.  It affects both the economic viability of a martian settlement and its rate of expansion.  It also determines what is more effective to produce in-situ and what can be transported economically from Earth.
+The [[cost of transportation]] to Mars is an essential metric in analysing a martian settlement.  It affects both the economic viability of a martian settlement and its rate of expansion.  It also determines what is more effective to produce in-situ and what can be transported economically from Earth.  This has been recognized by SpaceX, that proposed with the Starship infrastructure a reduction in cost of at least three orders of magnitude, from 200 000 $/ kg to 200 $/kg or less.  In the longer term these costs can be reduced further if transportation volumes are large.
 ==Aspect of finance==

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:58, 16 September 2024
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	That said, items that cost as much per kg as gold (or more) could be shipped back to Earth profitably. If the cost of space flight is lowered (say with solar powered steamers) then more items can be exported.		That said, items that cost as much per kg as gold (or more) could be shipped back to Earth profitably. If the cost of space flight is lowered (say with solar powered steamers) then more items can be exported.
		+
		+	If people start to exploit the asteroid belt, food and air can be shipped from Mars more cheaply than from Earth (and its huge gravity well).

	===Development goals===		===Development goals===

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:56, 16 September 2024
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	Shipping costs are probably lower for small scale machines than large scale machines, and the [[financial effort estimation\|financial frame]] will always be tight. The perfect, but unrealistic, way to colonize Mars is sending a one-kilogram probe with a handful of nanobots, preparing the whole colony, before sending a second one-kilogram probe with a handful of frozen fertilized human eggs, etc. This science fiction scenario is, of course, not realistic, but can serve as an ideal to strive for: minimize the mass and volume that needs to be launched from Earth, both initially and on an ongoing basis, by maximizing the self-sufficiency of Mars' industrial and agricultural infrastructures. This probably requires a radical redesign of almost every piece of equipment, and a radical rethinking of industrial infrastructure generally. Lo-tech (see e.g. [[pneumatics]], [[hydraulics]]), small-scale-tech (see e.g. [[blacksmith]], [[brick]], [[glass]]), and flexible tech (see e.g. [[3D Printer]]) are promising approaches.		Shipping costs are probably lower for small scale machines than large scale machines, and the [[financial effort estimation\|financial frame]] will always be tight. The perfect, but unrealistic, way to colonize Mars is sending a one-kilogram probe with a handful of nanobots, preparing the whole colony, before sending a second one-kilogram probe with a handful of frozen fertilized human eggs, etc. This science fiction scenario is, of course, not realistic, but can serve as an ideal to strive for: minimize the mass and volume that needs to be launched from Earth, both initially and on an ongoing basis, by maximizing the self-sufficiency of Mars' industrial and agricultural infrastructures. This probably requires a radical redesign of almost every piece of equipment, and a radical rethinking of industrial infrastructure generally. Lo-tech (see e.g. [[pneumatics]], [[hydraulics]]), small-scale-tech (see e.g. [[blacksmith]], [[brick]], [[glass]]), and flexible tech (see e.g. [[3D Printer]]) are promising approaches.
		+
		+	Whichever strategy is chosen, any population on Mars will expand and diversify its industry using local materials. Mars won't be able to produce computer controlled milling machines all on its own for a long time. But human controlled ones could be constructed. Or all parts except the computer chips could be created, with only the latter being shipped from Earth (to minimize shipping mass). It is hard to estimate how quickly the Martians can diversify their economy this way.

	===Strategy 2: Mass transport of ready-to-use technology===		===Strategy 2: Mass transport of ready-to-use technology===

← Older revision		Revision as of 13:44, 16 September 2024
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	Even when fully grown, a Martian colony need not be a closed system without any interactions with Earth. It is rather an independent sovereign state, fully in control of its destiny. In that regard, it need not produce all of its needs locally. However, it should be able to convert its economy to a closed one if a catastrophe makes Earth resources unavailable. On [[Earth]], no sovereign state would think of eliminating all trade with other nations. However, a Martian colony will not have a trade volume that is comparable with states on Earth, because the shipment costs are higher by several orders of magnitude. Therefore, the [[interplanetary commerce]] between Earth and Mars will eventually be reduced largely to data and services that can be transmitted via a [[radio link]], or low mass high value elements or technological items. As communications are subject to latency, this may reduce the value of some information by making it irrelevant due to delays.		Even when fully grown, a Martian colony need not be a closed system without any interactions with Earth. It is rather an independent sovereign state, fully in control of its destiny. In that regard, it need not produce all of its needs locally. However, it should be able to convert its economy to a closed one if a catastrophe makes Earth resources unavailable. On [[Earth]], no sovereign state would think of eliminating all trade with other nations. However, a Martian colony will not have a trade volume that is comparable with states on Earth, because the shipment costs are higher by several orders of magnitude. Therefore, the [[interplanetary commerce]] between Earth and Mars will eventually be reduced largely to data and services that can be transmitted via a [[radio link]], or low mass high value elements or technological items. As communications are subject to latency, this may reduce the value of some information by making it irrelevant due to delays.
		+
		+	That said, items that cost as much per kg as gold (or more) could be shipped back to Earth profitably. If the cost of space flight is lowered (say with solar powered steamers) then more items can be exported.

	===Development goals===		===Development goals===

@@ Line 9: / Line 9: @@
 ===Development goals===
 The following goals must be met to fulfill the requirements of an independent settlement:
 *Population: the minimum population for a sustainable technological society in unknown.  A value of one million has been proposed by Elon Musk for the SpaceX settlement plan.
 *Resources: all physical resources must come from Mars, or from asteroids exploited from Mars.
 *Production: the production infrastructure must be able to produce the entire spectrum of technological equipment, from microprocessors to dishwashers to new Spaceships.

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 [[Hi-tech versus lo-tech|Spartan technology]] (and hence spartan standard of living) can reduce the critical mass. Food production is the most critical part of the production system. If that can be accomplished with simple technology, the critical mass could be small enough to gain independence at once. However, this must includes [[mining]] and processing of all needed materials from [[local resources]].
-==Aspect of transport and development==
+==Aspect of transportation and development==
 ===Introduction===

@@ Line 23: / Line 23: @@
 Due to the risk of an interruption of the colonization program, this strategy aims at the full independence from the very start. The first settlement is built in a very spartan, but nonetheless sustainable way, with all vital supplies produced locally. This first settlement [[Unmanned setup of a whole settlement|is constructed using remote control]] and is fully functional before the first group of settlers head for Mars.
-[[Hi-tech versus lo-tech|Spartan technology]] (and hence spartan standard of living) can reduce the critical mass. The inevitable food production is the most critical part. If that can be accomplished with simple technology, the critical mass could be small enough to gain independence at once. However, this includes [[mining]] and processing of all needed materials from [[local resources]].
+[[Hi-tech versus lo-tech|Spartan technology]] (and hence spartan standard of living) can reduce the critical mass. Food production is the most critical part of the production system. If that can be accomplished with simple technology, the critical mass could be small enough to gain independence at once. However, this must includes [[mining]] and processing of all needed materials from [[local resources]].
 ==Aspect of transport and development==

@@ Line 21: / Line 21: @@
 ===Strategy 2: Independence at once===
-Due to the risk of an interruption of the colonization program, this strategy aims at the full independence from the very start. The first settlement is built in a very spartan, but nonetheless sustainable way, with all vital supplies produced locally. This first settlement [[Unmanned setup of a whole settlement|is constructed remote controlled]] and is fully functional before the first group of settlers head for Mars.
+Due to the risk of an interruption of the colonization program, this strategy aims at the full independence from the very start. The first settlement is built in a very spartan, but nonetheless sustainable way, with all vital supplies produced locally. This first settlement [[Unmanned setup of a whole settlement|is constructed using remote control]] and is fully functional before the first group of settlers head for Mars.
 [[Hi-tech versus lo-tech|Spartan technology]] (and hence spartan standard of living) can reduce the critical mass. The inevitable food production is the most critical part. If that can be accomplished with simple technology, the critical mass could be small enough to gain independence at once. However, this includes [[mining]] and processing of all needed materials from [[local resources]].

@@ Line 5: / Line 5: @@
 The long term maintenance of complex equipment requires a large number of persons. At a minimum, they will need to replace or repair critical components, such as life support, [[Limited medical care in an autonomous colony|medical technology]], [[food]] production, etc. It is hard to imagine that this can be done without [[electronics]] and [[:category:chemistry|chemistry]]. At least some technology must be maintained, for the Martian [[environmental conditions]] do not allow people to live on Mars without continuous technological support. So, there is a critical mass for the number of persons in an [[autonomous colony]].
-Even when fully grown, a Martian colony need not be a closed system without any interactions with Earth. It is rather an independent sovereign state, fully in control of its destiny. In that regard, it need not produce all of its needs locally.  However, it should be able to convert its economy to a closed one if a catastrophe makes Earth resources unavailable. On [[Earth]], no sovereign state would think of eliminating all trade with other nations. However, such a Martian colony will not have a trade volume that is comparable with any state on Earth, because the shipment costs are higher by several orders of magnitude. Therefore, the [[interplanetary commerce]] between Earth and Mars will eventually be reduced largely to data and services that can be transmitted via a [[radio link]], or low mass high value elements or technological items. As communications are subject to latency, this may reduce the value of some information by making it irrelevant due to delays.
+Even when fully grown, a Martian colony need not be a closed system without any interactions with Earth. It is rather an independent sovereign state, fully in control of its destiny. In that regard, it need not produce all of its needs locally.  However, it should be able to convert its economy to a closed one if a catastrophe makes Earth resources unavailable. On [[Earth]], no sovereign state would think of eliminating all trade with other nations. However, a Martian colony will not have a trade volume that is comparable with states on Earth, because the shipment costs are higher by several orders of magnitude. Therefore, the [[interplanetary commerce]] between Earth and Mars will eventually be reduced largely to data and services that can be transmitted via a [[radio link]], or low mass high value elements or technological items. As communications are subject to latency, this may reduce the value of some information by making it irrelevant due to delays.
 ===Development goals===