Marspedia - User contributions [en]

Talk:Settlement Strategies

2010-03-10T16:00:48Z

Frontiersman: /* Using a Lunar Stepping Stone */

== Using a Lunar Stepping Stone ==
If we want to keep all various colonization ideas it makes no sense to present an idea in a deficient form. I believe that my portrayal of the to Mars by way of a lunar stepping stone idea is closer to what its proponents have in mind.--[[User:Farred|Farred]] 01:44, 22 February 2010 (UTC)
:It should have both sides of the argument so I've added back a modified version of my text. [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 04:15, 23 February 2010 (UTC)
::We should present representative arguments in favor and opposed to various strategies, within the limits of what is reasonable for an article and provide links to more thorough discussion. I would change the title from "Develop industry on the Moon and then transport it to Mars" to "Develop industry on the Moon to support Mars colonization." We will not be transporting lunar industry to Mars because different industries are suitable for Luna and Mars. Sending an operating space habitat to Mars with a solar power satellite should help.
::This strategy is not just moving the problem to a different place. It is addressing a different set of problems in order to use new resources for colonizing Mars. Also it provides a ready-made market for Mars industry. I would argue that exporting volatiles to Luna would likely be economically viable, because a fully reusable to orbit launch vehicle for use on Mars should be much easier to build than one for Earth because only 20.2% of the energy needed to orbit Earth can get to Mars Orbit. The volatiles should be extremely valuable on Luna. Being continually reused, they would determine the size of lunar industry. Why do you think it would not be viable?--[[User:Farred|Farred]] 01:30, 26 February 2010 (UTC)
::Since there has been no response as to why trade of volatiles to Luna would not be profitable, I will remove the assertion. When there is some reason for it, it can be added back.--[[User:Farred|Farred]] 02:30, 6 March 2010 (UTC)
:::You've removed far more than such an assertion. Don't remove the counter-argument to this dubious proposal. [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 21:42, 8 March 2010 (UTC)
:::And BTW you are seriously missing my point that you have *moved* the problem, the problem being how to develop a self-sufficient economy in space when launch costs from earth are so high. You have simply *moved* the problem to a new locale and used some hand-waving about trade. But you can trade between places on Mars too: if trade between Mars and the moon could solve the problem so could trade between different places on Mars. The moon doesn't have anything fundamental that isn't also on Mars. Please, try to understand what other people are saying before undoing what they write. [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 21:46, 8 March 2010 (UTC)
::::I think I understand Frontiersman's idea that if trade between Luna and Mars could solve problems then trade between two places on Mars could solve the problem too. If it were just a case of shipping material goods from Luna to Mars in exchange for material goods shipped from Mars to Luna He would have a point, but there are other things to consider. Luna could potentially ship containers of liquid oxygen into low Earth orbit so that the cost of getting reaction mass in LEO would be greatly reduced. This would reduce the cost of transportation from Earth to Mars and from Earth to Luna. This advantage cannot be duplicated by trading between two places on Mars and transportation of goods from Earth is something required to set up the colony on Mars at least. As far as moving the problem of setting up industry is concerned, the "develop industry on the Moon to support Mars colonization" strategy enlarges the area of development rather than moving it. After developing Luna, the problem of colonizing Mars still remains, with some automatic equipment in place on Mars and industry on Luna to support it. As I suggested above, a solar power satellite sent from cis lunar space to synchronous Mars orbit could help Martian industry. The advantage of shipping material to orbit to build it that Luna could have is beyond the reach of Mars-Mars trade. Likewise, building a space habitat and sending it to Mars provides a benefit that cannot be reproduced by Mars-Mars trade. Furthermore, building space-based solar power satellites for Earth cannot be duplicated by Mars-Mars trade, and it is a source of money to Luna which Luna could spend for volatiles from Mars and Mars could spend for imports from Earth. The idea that Mars-Mars trade could solve any problem that Luna-Mars could solve just does not seem to be supported by any facts.

::::The comparison of shipping water to Luna to shipping river water by truck to "the top of the mountains where the river comes from" is a nonanalogous analogy. Luna is not where volatiles come from. It is a place where they could be put to good use. The top of mountains is not a place where there is any specified use for water. Certainly water is necessary for industry. It will be necessary on Mars where it will need to be recycled because digging it out of the permafrost is more difficult than pumping it from an Earthly river to Earthly industry. The Martian polar caps probably hold down some liquid water where it flows beneath the cap to the edge of the ice cap and serves as the source of water for the lower latitude permafrost. However, the vast majority of Martian water is frozen. A Mars colony will recycle water and Luna will recycle water. The motivation on Luna will just be more intense. In "Equipment for autonomous growth" Frontiersman wrote: "By the time we are done with our analysis this economy and its technology will likely be radically different both from the traditional frontier town and from the modern technology with which we are familiar." With nothing more specific than that, readers should take on faith that the network of industrial processes supplying each other will be fully closed. If Frontiersman can swallow that, why does he have problems with Luna recycling water and using only a small amount of imports for anything other than expansion? It certainly seems more reasonable to get water out of Mars' gravity well than out of Earth's, and on Luna volatiles should be as valuable as gold. Why then does Frontiersman refer to my specific suggestions for Luna-Mars trade as "some hand-waving"?--[[User:Farred|Farred]] 07:14, 10 March 2010 (UTC)
:::::If the volatiles are "as valuable as gold" industry certainly won't be able to afford to operate on Luna. There is no such thing as 100% recycling technology. The expense and not recycling was the point of my water-truck analogy. And the closed-loop of operations and inputs/outputs needed for a self-sufficient economy has nothing to do with recycling, they are two very different concepts. Raw materials simply have to be available, they are not product, the closed loops have only to do with tooling and workers skills and the lowered efficiency that comes from less division of labor. BTW "Luna could potentially ship containers of liquid oxygen into low Earth orbit so that the cost of getting reaction mass in LEO would be greatly reduced" is a point and you should add it to the article (you might want to rephrase it to clarify though). [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 16:00, 10 March 2010 (UTC)

== Golden Mars scenario ==

The ''Golden Mars scenario'' paragraph seem to fit better in [[Interplanetary commerce]] or [[Earth-Mars Trade]]. How about keeping a more vague ''mining business strategy'' here in this article and moving the detailed gold business to one of the other articles? -- [[User:Rfc|Rfc]] 21:10, 24 February 2010 (UTC)
:It's an example for financial strategy, and financial strategy is a crucial part of colonization strategy. No money, no colony. It may well be that finance should have its own article, summarized in this one. It's about far more than commerce and trade, it's about exploring what the finances of a colony would be like and how one designs a colony based on financial constraints (with the Golden Mars scenario just being an example of such financial constraints). [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 02:23, 25 February 2010 (UTC)
:It's not the only possible example, BTW. We could have "The Hacker Scenario" based on a bunch of computer programmers resettling on Mars and selling their services or code back on earth in exchange for the imports they need. Again the trade and finances are quite central to the colonization strategy that the hackers would pursue (e.g., how self-sufficient they'd have to be would be based on what imports they could afford). [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]]
Examples are very good for understanding, so I fully agree with you having examples in Marspedia. The more in number, the better. The more detailed, the better. What I mean is, we can use the wiki technology (links, categories, etc.) for better structuring. The article is already pretty long, which is fine so far, but it will grow even more. The strategy thing is a really big topic. So, how about creating an own article for each example, for instance [[Golden Mars scenario]]? This allows to create many more examples, each in its own article, but neatly linked to each other and to [[Colonization strategy]] and vice versa. All the example articles may then be in [[:category:colonization business models]], which I am creating right now.-- [[User:Rfc|Rfc]] 19:51, 25 February 2010 (UTC)

Landing on Mars

2010-03-10T06:29:32Z

Frontiersman: sky crane

Landing on Mars is a difficult problem.

<blockquote>To date over 60% of the missions [to the Martian surface] have failed. The scientists and engineers of these undertakings use phrases like "Six Minutes of Terror," and "The Great Galactic Ghoul" to illustrate their experiences, evidence of the anxiety that's evoked by sending a robotic spacecraft to Mars — even among those who have devoted their careers to the task. But mention sending a human mission to land on the Red Planet, with payloads several factors larger than an unmanned spacecraft and the trepidation among that same group grows even larger.

If we need a four hundred foot diameter parachute manufactured in space out of aluminum oxide fiber and sent to Mars in stiff deployed condition instead of being packed, we will not learn about it unless we see a need to experiment. Such a parachute might merit investigation. It would avoid opening shock and might be sufficiently heat resistant to maintain structural integrity during the entire descent in Mars' low gravity well. The larger the diameter of the parachute, the less the max g loading. So let us be honest with ourselves about all necessary colonization technology. <ref name="MarsLanding"> http://www.universetoday.com/2007/07/17/the-mars-landing-approach-getting-large-payloads-to-the-surface-of-the-red-planet/ </ref> </blockquote>

The expected max temperature for ballistic entry into Mars atmosphere is expected to be a thousand or more Kelvin degrees above the melting point of aluminum oxide so coating course aluminum oxide fibers with potassium oxide which decomposes at 490 Centigrade might protect the fibers through atmospheric entry by ablative cooling or it might not. A mixture of potassium and sodium oxides as a coating or Teflon as a coating are things that are conceivable. Engineers in this specialty would have a better idea.

Another alternative with a greater probability of working, but possibly high cost, is a delta winged entry vehicle or lifting body with insulation like that on the space shuttle. The insulation would be somewhat cheaper because Mars atmospheric entry is less demanding than Earth reentry. It would fly supersonic close to the ground then ignite its rockets for landing. Then it would perform a Pugachev's Cobra maneuver loosing most of its horizontal velocity by drag and loosing the rest by rocket thrust. It would touch down on its tail.

Another alternative is the Sky Crane:

<blockquote>the 2009 Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover, weighing 775 kilograms (versus MER at 175.4 kilograms each) requires an entirely new landing architecture. Too massive for airbags, the small-car sized rover will use a landing system dubbed the Sky Crane. "Even though some people laugh when they first see it, my personal view is that the Sky Crane is actually the most elegant system we've come up with yet, and the simplest," said Manning. MSL will use a combination of a rocket-guided entry with a heat shield, a parachute, then thrusters to slow the vehicle even more, followed by a crane-like system that lowers the rover on a cable for a soft landing directly on its wheels. Depending on the success of the Sky Crane with MSL, it's likely that this system can be scaled for larger payloads, but probably not the size needed to land humans on Mars. (See Ref #1) </blockquote>

Landing on Mars

2010-03-10T06:14:18Z

Frontiersman: new article

Landing on Mars is a difficult problem.

<blockquote>To date over 60% of the missions [to the Martian surface] have failed. The scientists and engineers of these undertakings use phrases like "Six Minutes of Terror," and "The Great Galactic Ghoul" to illustrate their experiences, evidence of the anxiety that's evoked by sending a robotic spacecraft to Mars — even among those who have devoted their careers to the task. But mention sending a human mission to land on the Red Planet, with payloads several factors larger than an unmanned spacecraft and the trepidation among that same group grows even larger.

If we need a four hundred foot diameter parachute manufactured in space out of aluminum oxide fiber and sent to Mars in stiff deployed condition instead of being packed, we will not learn about it unless we see a need to experiment. Such a parachute might merit investigation. It would avoid opening shock and might be sufficiently heat resistant to maintain structural integrity during the entire descent in Mars' low gravity well. The larger the diameter of the parachute, the less the max g loading. So let us be honest with ourselves about all necessary colonization technology. If we need space manufacturing for a healthy Mars colony, let us get on with it.<ref> http://www.universetoday.com/2007/07/17/the-mars-landing-approach-getting-large-payloads-to-the-surface-of-the-red-planet/ </ref> </blockquote>

The expected max temperature for ballistic entry into Mars atmosphere is expected to be a thousand or more Kelvin degrees above the melting point of aluminum oxide so coating course aluminum oxide fibers with potassium oxide which decomposes at 490 Centigrade might protect the fibers through atmospheric entry by ablative cooling or it might not. A mixture of potassium and sodium oxides as a coating or Teflon as a coating are things that are conceivable. Engineers in this specialty would have a better idea.

One technology that I am fairly confident would work would be to have a delta winged entry vehicle or lifting body with insulation like that on the space shuttle. The insulation would be somewhat cheaper because Mars atmospheric entry is less demanding than Earth reentry. It would fly supersonic close to the ground then ignite its rockets for landing. Then it would perform a Pugachev's Cobra manuever loosing most of its horizontal velocity by drag and loosing the rest by rocket thrust. It would touch down on its tail.

Talk:Unmanned setup of a whole settlement

2010-03-10T06:03:55Z

Frontiersman: /* Landing on Mars */

"Since the Martian atmosphere is thin, the landing requires more than just wings. For previous missions additional boosters and parachutes were used. For a colonisation the preceding construction of a space elevator can potentially reduce the costs of landing large amounts of equipment on Mars."

"the landing requires more then just wings". You do not need wings to land. The only spacecraft to reenter and land with wings was the space shuttle (And its Russian counterpart, Buran). Landing could be achieved with a near-conventional aeroshell, parachutes and airbags that deflate on impact or a crushable section. Incorperating some sort of decent engine like that on the apollo lunar module would increase accuracy but also increase complexity. A space elevator would not reduce the costs of anything. A space elevator is a massive megastructure requiring untested construction methods and constant maintanance. The advantage of an aeroshell/parachute/airbag cargo lander is that the materials could be enriched with elements and compounds that are rare on Mars, so that they could be recycled at a later date. [[User:T.Neo|T.Neo]] 13:32, 21 July 2008 (UTC)

:Conventional lander technology is all we have at the moment. We have experience for small probes. We have no experience for landing heavy load on Mars. So, this is ''untested'' as well, and we have to develop new landers anyway. Probably, aeroshell/parachute/airbag is not feasible alone and requires additional support of rocketry. I find the idea of a space elevator interesting, because it seems to be possible due to the low gravity of Mars, even with known materials. But yes, it is ''untested'' hitherto. And no, it does not require ''constant maintenance'' if used just to land all the material for the settlement kick-off. The space elevator for landing is quite simple, and I suppose it might be cheaper than conventional landing technology for large amounts of equipment. However, I am not able to do the calculations. I wish, some experienced engineer from NASA or Roskosmos could help us with some calculations. -- [[User:Rfc|Rfc]] 20:39, 21 July 2008 (UTC)

Other then the fact that the space elevator may actually be feasible on Mars, there is no real reason to use it. Constructing the space elevator and repairing micrometeoroid damage will cost huge amounts of money. What is needed is a very, very, very large rocket that is partially reusable, like the [http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_dragon Sea dragon]. By rocket assistance I am not sure if you mean a lunar lander type "hover" engine to steer to the landing zone, or solid rockets to decrease speed, similar to what the MER rovers used on decent. The upcoming Mars Science Laboratory will be a test at dropping large payloads on Mars, NASA seems convinced, so I am. And yes, someone from a space agency or with similar experiance would be very helpful to Marspedia. [[User:T.Neo|T.Neo]] 14:39, 22 July 2008 (UTC)

:Okay, if NASA has already plans then it ought to be feasible. For landing a single piece of payload this is probably the cheapest solution (or in other words ''the least expensive''). A space elevator is definitely not cheap for a single piece of payload, but it might be the cheapest solution for a series of 50 pieces of payload to land on Mars. The lifetime of the space elevator would be limited to the settlement kick-off phase, may be a year. No repairing. To be honest, I have no idea, how much the construction cost. It's quite uncertain. -- [[User:Rfc|Rfc]] 16:43, 22 July 2008 (UTC)

The cargo pallets would be MSL/sample return mission derived, with a service module for orientation and power during the cruse phase, and would be launched on something like an Ares V booster. The service module would seperate and possibly aerobrake into a stable orbit around Mars, to possibly become a communication or GPS satillite. The pallet would then reenter the atmosphere, protected by a CEV derived PICA heatshield. It would then deploy a supersonic parachute. On impact, a crushable zone or airbags would cushion the landing. A subsonic parachute could be included as well. There would be a margin of error, but the cargo would be collected and moved to the construction site. A space elevator would be something to be built by an established colony, not a developing or yet nonexistant one. Rendezvous with the elevator counterweight would be tricky, and require a large amount of fuel, meaning a payload penalty. Then the cargo, once landed, would have to be ferried to the base, which could be thousands of kilometers away from the equator where the cable is situated. Building the space elevator would also be a challenge, and require many launches, '''''and''''' some sort of landing like I suggest. Anyone you ask from NASA, ESA and Roskosmos would say the same, I bet.

P.S.
why are caves the only option suggested for a settlement? Why not other ideas, like Transhab type modules buried in regolith? [[User:T.Neo|T.Neo]] 09:31, 23 July 2008 (UTC)

==Landing on Mars==
The color of Mars could be described as red or as rose. However putting on rose colored grasses when viewing the prospects of colonizing Mars does no good. If everything seems rosy because of illusion, that illusion will fail to provide the Martian colony that we want. For example, if the current parachute and air bag cannot just be scaled up for landing heavy equipment on Mars, simply insisting that it can only interferes with considering other options that might work, and delays their development. The seeming inadequacy of current methods is indicated in this web page: ("http://www.universetoday.com/2007/07/17/the-mars-landing-approach-getting-large-payloads-to-the-surface-of-the-red-planet/") If we need a four hundred foot diameter parachute manufactured in space out of aluminum oxide fiber and sent to Mars in stiff deployed condition instead of being packed, we will not learn about it unless we see a need to experiment. Such a parachute might merit investigation. It would avoid opening shock and might be sufficiently heat resistant to maintain structural integrity during the entire descent in Mars' low gravity well. The larger the diameter of the parachute, the less the max g loading. So let us be honest with ourselves about all necessary colonization technology. If we need space manufacturing for a healthy Mars colony, let us get on with it.--[[User:Farred|Farred]] 22:26, 5 March 2010 (UTC)

The expected max temperature for ballistic entry into Mars atmosphere is expected to be a thousand or more Kelvin degrees above the melting point of aluminum oxide so coating course aluminum oxide fibers with potassium oxide which decomposes at 490 Centigrade might protect the fibers through atmospheric entry by ablative cooling or it might not. A mixture of potassium and sodium oxides as a coating or Teflon as a coating are things that are conceivable. Engineers in this specialty would have a better idea.

One technology that I am fairly confident would work would be to have a delta winged entry vehicle or lifting body with insulation like that on the space shuttle. The insulation would be somewhat cheaper because Mars atmospheric entry is less demanding than Earth reentry. It would fly supersonic close to the ground then ignite its rockets for landing. Then it would perform a Pugachev's Cobra manuever loosing most of its horizontal velocity by drag and loosing the rest by rocket thrust. It would touch down on its tail. There is no question that this is possible. It is only a matter of money.--[[User:Farred|Farred]] 00:27, 10 March 2010 (UTC)
::These are great comments. Probably we should having a new article [[Landing on Mars]]. [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 06:03, 10 March 2010 (UTC)

Equipment for autonomous growth

2010-03-09T16:05:02Z

Frontiersman: link

What equipment will settlers on [[Mars]] need to be really [[Independence from Earth‎|independent from Earth]] on the long term? This article wants to define the '''Equipment for Autonomous Growth''' to enable a [[colony]] to thrive, entirely based upon [[local resources]].

The initial settlement on Mars will be built with technology from [[Earth]], involving space travel, radio link, etc. Hopefully, this initial settlement is completed with the ability to sustain itself.

In case the support from Earth stops some day due to financial or political issues, the settlers are completely on their own. In order to survive, the settlement must be equipped with technology that allows life to continue indefinitely. A growing population requires the settlement to grow as well. The limited material from Earth will be used up quickly. Unlimited growth requires technology to exploit Martian resources to build everything required.

Even if Earth's economy is normal, launch costs from earth may remain very high. Even if only economic self-sufficiency (monetary break-even or profit) is a goal, imports may remain very expensive and so there is a strong economic incentive to substitute Martian-made goods for earth-made ones.

Substituting native manufactures for imports is a great challenge because technology since the Industrial Revolution has depended on a global economy that now includes billions of workers. Factories that specialize in making one particular kind of good often employ hundreds of workers directly, but tens of thousands to millions of workers indirectly to provide parts and sub-parts and raw materials for all these, and to produce still more goods and services to meet the needs of all these workers. As Adam Smith wrote,
:Observe the accommodation of the most common artificer or day-laborer in a civilized and thriving country, and you will perceive that the number of people of whose industry a part, though but a small part, has been employed in procuring him this accommodation, exceeds all computation. The woollen coat, for example, which covers the day laborer, as coarse and rough as it may appear, is the produce of the joint labor of a great multitude of workmen.

The initial prototypes and test articles of modern products were often made by fewer people in a lab, using more flexible manufacturing equipment, so in principle the work can be done by fewer people. However, the production rate per person, i.e. overall economic efficiency, goes way down as batch sizes decline. To minimize this, and to minimize the dependence of machines themselves on a global economy, most processes and pieces of equipment, from machine tools to finished products, will have to be radically redesigned in order to be made on Mars. For a medium-sized colony, [[:category:Lo-tech|Lo-tech]] processes may be redesigned for a small workforce, namely [[pneumatics]], [[hydraulics]], and so on. A small colony (100 to 10,000 people, the size of a frontier town) will probably rely mostly on [[:category:Small-scale-tech|small-scale-tech]] based on traditional craft industries such as [[brick|brick-making]], [[blacksmith|blacksmithing]], [[smelting]], [[glass|glass-blowing]], etc. A small "ecosystem" of equipment that is collectively self-replicating, such as is the goal of RepRap (see [[3D Printer]]), could greatly help in the task of substituting for imports from Earth. [[shared_componenting|Shared components]] can reduce labor and tooling costs.

==Mining equipment==
The most critical technology is [[mining]]. It provides almost every [[:category:material|material]] the growing colony needs: [[water]], [[iron]], [[silicon]], etc.

==Construction technique==
A growing colony needs to build more and larger [[building]]s. An initial set of machines, measuring devices, formwork etc. should be brought to Mars. Advanced [[3D Printer]]s can be used to fabricate items on Mars. Construction complexity may be averted by the use of [[Shared componenting‎]].

==Energy==
[[Energy]] is one of the [[crucial issues]] in a Martian colony. The surplus energy, that is what is left after [[food]] production and machinery maintenance, can be used to expand the colony. Both mining and processing of additional construction material as well as drilling of [[artificial cave]]s consume large amounts of energy.

==Automation==
There are many processes to maintain in an artificial [[habitat]], requiring [[automation]] technology. [[Electronics]], [[mechanics]], [[hydraulics]] and [[pneumatics]] are considered.

==Computers==
Computers are found in anything from watches and microwaves to cellphones and personal computers, at least in industrialized societies on Earth. One might think, computers are required in establishing a modern colony. Surely they are a great help for any other technology, but they are not inevitable.

==Internet==
The access to Earth's [[internet]] is definitely not necessary for an autonomous colony, but it helps to exchange technological, scientific and cultural news, which might be beneficial for both Mars and Earth.

==Food production==
Since [[sunlight]] is not as bright as on Earth, there may be a need for [[Greenhouse|greenhouses]] with [[solar concentrator|mirrors that concentrate the sunshine]]. The construction of [[biotechnology|biotechnological factories]] can help to provide enough [[food]] for the settlers.

==Synthetic materials==
Almost any technology requires a large quantity of [[synthetic materials]]: plastics, oil, acids, etc., that is produced by [[:Category:Chemistry|chemical processes]].

==Reproductive Technology==
Every machine and every gadget has a [[wear lifespan|limited lifetime]]. It must be replaced periodically to keep the function alive. As a principle, the equipment brought to Mars must be constructed simple enough to allow a repair and duplication from local resources. The periodic repair and maintenance process must not consume more material, energy and time than the colony can afford. The usage of [[hi-tech versus lo-tech|Lo-tech instead of hi-tech]] for vital systems is a possible solution. [[Recycling]] helps too.

===Example: Manufacture and repair of digging machines===
[[Digging machine]]s produce [[ore]]. The [[smelter]] transforms ore to iron. A [[steel plant]] makes [[steel]] out of the iron. And the steel must be forged and finished to parts for digging machines. Is the circle closed? Digging machines used in modern mines on Earth contain thousands of non-steel parts. A steel plant on earth requires at least hundreds of workers directly, and many more if we count the workers needed to build the equipment and the parts for that equipment and structures of the steel mill, to mine and transport the iron ore, and to satisfy the very diverse products and services expected by steel workers as consumers. Similarly assembly plants for digging machines typically employ hundreds of workers directly and tens of thousands indirectly. For colonies with fewer people, a much simpler "frontier town" loop is that a [[blacksmith]] produces tools and simple hand-powered machines and replacement parts for mining, and a small-scale smelter converts the ore to the iron bars worked by the blacksmith. A [[brick]]-maker makes furnaces for the smelter and blacksmith. With crafts of a self-sufficient frontier town on an Earthly frontier the circle has been closed by each of these entities supplying the tools and inputs of the other.

This simple input-output analysis of the ideal frontier town serves as a model for the far more sophisticated input-output analysis that is needed for modern technologies with their large number of parts made by a very large and wide variety of machines and people, whenever that technology is to be used in an autonomous colony. Far more than just the actual technology of the historical frontier town will be needed for Mars. In the historical frontier town air supply and sewage disposal came free courtesy of the Earthly natural ecology. On Mars the air supply, sewage disposal, and food will come from a more complicated interconnected system of systems that must be overseen by people and must be largely automated to accomplish all functions with a limited number of human workers. The autonomous Mars economy will require more than just traditional craftsmen, but the simple self-sufficient craft economy makes a very useful starting point for designing an autonomous Martian economy and the radically different technology that will be required for same. By the time we are done with our analysis this economy and its technology will likely be radically different both from the traditional frontier town and from the modern technology with which we are familiar.

===Example: Repair of solar panels===
[[Solar panel]]s provide [[electricity]], which will be used to create more silicon for photo-voltaic cells.

===Example: Repair of electronics===
The most complex thing to replace is, perhaps, the computer. It needs high-tech processes and special substances to make all the electronic devices within a computer. There are few ways for coping with this challenge: abstain from any [[electronics]] on Mars; find a way to produce simple electronics that can be made from local Martian resources or stockpile critical materials such as silicon single crystals and high purity chemical dopants that would be needed if Mars were to shift to self-supply of integrated circuitry. It would take a long time for a small industrial society to consume a hundred kilograms of such strategic reserves if Earthly computer chips became unavailable.

==See also==
*[[Autonomous colony]]
*[[Minerals]]

[[Category: Technology]]
[[Category: Concepts]]

Shared componenting

2010-03-09T15:59:03Z

Frontiersman: /* Plastics */

'''Shared componenting''' is having all devices and machines using the same components, for example, uniform sizes of nuts, bolts, gears, ball bearings, etc. This minimizes tooling and labor costs to produce the parts, often at the cost of lower precision and/or greater use of raw materials in the resulting machine. Since raw materials such as iron are abundant, the second disadvantage is generally not an important concern. Because of the strong economic incentives to make things on Mars instead of importing them, lower precision will usually be a good tradeoff to bring lower labor and tooling costs for Martian manufacture. To minimize labor, the resulting devices should be easy to assemble. Thus the set may come to resemble a larger-scale and professional version of sophisticated toy construction sets such as Meccano or Erector, and most parts in most machines and structures used on Mars will come from this set.

== Metals ==
Ore is [[mining|mined]], processed and smelted. Then, the raw metal is shaped into "starter shapes", rods, sheets, wire. Then, automated machines cut and shape the metal into the components. The components can then be assembled into the machine or device needed.

== Plastics ==
Standard [[Plastics|Plastic]] parts can molded far more quickly than custom parts can be made with a [[3D Printer]]. Various machines might be constructed to create plastic fibers, film, etc. Bioplastics might be used.

== Electronics ==
Electronic hardware could be made using some sort of printer. For simplicity and ease of repair and construction, all computer systems would use the same hardware with only the software differing.
Software can be produced by colonists trained in computer programming.

[[category: technology]]
[[category: lo-tech]]

Equipment for autonomous growth

2010-03-08T22:41:37Z

Frontiersman: /* Example: Manufacture and repair of digging machines */

What equipment will settlers on [[Mars]] need to be really [[Independence from Earth‎|independent from Earth]] on the long term? This article wants to define the '''Equipment for Autonomous Growth''' to enable a [[colony]] to thrive, entirely based upon [[local resources]].

The initial settlement on Mars will be built with technology from [[Earth]], involving space travel, radio link, etc. Hopefully, this initial settlement is completed with the ability to sustain itself.

In case the support from Earth stops some day due to financial or political issues, the settlers are completely on their own. In order to survive, the settlement must be equipped with technology that allows life to continue indefinitely. A growing population requires the settlement to grow as well. The limited material from Earth will be used up quickly. Unlimited growth requires technology to exploit Martian resources to build everything required.

Even if Earth's economy is normal, launch costs from earth may remain very high. Even if only economic self-sufficiency (monetary break-even or profit) is a goal, imports may remain very expensive and so there is a strong economic incentive to substitute Martian-made goods for earth-made ones.

Substituting native manufactures for imports is a great challenge because technology since the Industrial Revolution has depended on a global economy that now includes billions of workers. Factories that specialize in making one particular kind of good often employ hundreds of workers directly, but tens of thousands to millions of workers indirectly to provide parts and sub-parts and raw materials for all these, and to produce still more goods and services to meet the needs of all these workers. As Adam Smith wrote,
:Observe the accommodation of the most common artificer or day-laborer in a civilized and thriving country, and you will perceive that the number of people of whose industry a part, though but a small part, has been employed in procuring him this accommodation, exceeds all computation. The woollen coat, for example, which covers the day laborer, as coarse and rough as it may appear, is the produce of the joint labor of a great multitude of workmen.

The initial prototypes and test articles of modern products were often made by fewer people in a lab, using more flexible manufacturing equipment, so in principle the work can be done by fewer people. However, the production rate per person, i.e. overall economic efficiency, goes way down as batch sizes decline. To minimize this, and to minimize the dependence of machines themselves on a global economy, most processes and pieces of equipment, from machine tools to finished products, will have to be radically redesigned in order to be made on Mars. For a medium-sized colony, [[:category:Lo-tech|Lo-tech]] processes may be redesigned for a small workforce, namely [[pneumatics]], [[hydraulics]], and so on. A small colony (100 to 10,000 people, the size of a frontier town) will probably rely mostly on [[:category:Small-scale-tech|small-scale-tech]] based on traditional craft industries such as [[brick|brick-making]], [[blacksmith|blacksmithing]], [[smelting]], [[glass|glass-blowing]], etc. A small "ecosystem" of equipment that is collectively self-replicating, such as is the goal of RepRap (see [[3D printing]]), could greatly help in the task of substituting for imports from Earth. [[shared_componenting|Shared components]] can reduce labor and tooling costs.

==Mining equipment==
The most critical technology is [[mining]]. It provides almost every [[:category:material|material]] the growing colony needs: [[water]], [[iron]], [[silicon]], etc.

==Construction technique==
A growing colony needs to build more and larger [[building]]s. An initial set of machines, measuring devices, formwork etc. should be brought to Mars. Advanced [[3D Printer]]s can be used to fabricate items on Mars. Construction complexity may be averted by the use of [[Shared componenting‎]].

==Energy==
[[Energy]] is one of the [[crucial issues]] in a Martian colony. The surplus energy, that is what is left after [[food]] production and machinery maintenance, can be used to expand the colony. Both mining and processing of additional construction material as well as drilling of [[artificial cave]]s consume large amounts of energy.

==Automation==
There are many processes to maintain in an artificial [[habitat]], requiring [[automation]] technology. [[Electronics]], [[mechanics]], [[hydraulics]] and [[pneumatics]] are considered.

==Computers==
Computers are found in anything from watches and microwaves to cellphones and personal computers, at least in industrialized societies on Earth. One might think, computers are required in establishing a modern colony. Surely they are a great help for any other technology, but they are not inevitable.

==Internet==
The access to Earth's [[internet]] is definitely not necessary for an autonomous colony, but it helps to exchange technological, scientific and cultural news, which might be beneficial for both Mars and Earth.

==Food production==
Since [[sunlight]] is not as bright as on Earth, there may be a need for [[Greenhouse|greenhouses]] with [[solar concentrator|mirrors that concentrate the sunshine]]. The construction of [[biotechnology|biotechnological factories]] can help to provide enough [[food]] for the settlers.

==Synthetic materials==
Almost any technology requires a large quantity of [[synthetic materials]]: plastics, oil, acids, etc., that is produced by [[:Category:Chemistry|chemical processes]].

==Reproductive Technology==
Every machine and every gadget has a [[wear lifespan|limited lifetime]]. It must be replaced periodically to keep the function alive. As a principle, the equipment brought to Mars must be constructed simple enough to allow a repair and duplication from local resources. The periodic repair and maintenance process must not consume more material, energy and time than the colony can afford. The usage of [[hi-tech versus lo-tech|Lo-tech instead of hi-tech]] for vital systems is a possible solution. [[Recycling]] helps too.

===Example: Manufacture and repair of digging machines===
[[Digging machine]]s produce [[ore]]. The [[smelter]] transforms ore to iron. A [[steel plant]] makes [[steel]] out of the iron. And the steel must be forged and finished to parts for digging machines. Is the circle closed? Digging machines used in modern mines on Earth contain thousands of non-steel parts. A steel plant on earth requires at least hundreds of workers directly, and many more if we count the workers needed to build the equipment and the parts for that equipment and structures of the steel mill, to mine and transport the iron ore, and to satisfy the very diverse products and services expected by steel workers as consumers. Similarly assembly plants for digging machines typically employ hundreds of workers directly and tens of thousands indirectly. For colonies with fewer people, a much simpler "frontier town" loop is that a [[blacksmith]] produces tools and simple hand-powered machines and replacement parts for mining, and a small-scale smelter converts the ore to the iron bars worked by the blacksmith. A [[brick]]-maker makes furnaces for the smelter and blacksmith. With crafts of a self-sufficient frontier town on an Earthly frontier the circle has been closed by each of these entities supplying the tools and inputs of the other.

This simple input-output analysis of the idea frontier town serves as a model for the far more sophisticated input-output analysis that is needed for modern technologies with their large number of parts made by a very large and wide variety of machines and people, whenever that technology is to be used in an autonomous colony. Far more than just the actual technology of the historical frontier town will be needed for Mars. In the historical frontier town air supply and sewage disposal came free courtesy of the Earthly natural ecology. On Mars the air supply, sewage disposal, and food will come from a more complicated interconnected system of systems that must be overseen by people and must be largely automated to accomplish all functions with a limited number of human workers. The autonomous Mars economy will require more than just traditional craftsmen, but the simple self-sufficient craft economy makes a very useful starting point for designing an autonomous Martian economy and the radically different technology that will be required for same. By the time we are done with our analysis this economy and its technology will likely be radically different both from the traditional frontier town and from the modern technology with which we are familiar.

===Example: Repair of solar panels===
[[Solar panel]]s provide [[electricity]], which will be used to create more silicon for photo-voltaic cells.

===Example: Repair of electronics===
The most complex thing to replace is, perhaps, the computer. It needs high-tech processes and special substances to make all the electronic devices within a computer. There are few ways for coping with this challenge: abstain from any [[electronics]] on Mars; find a way to produce simple electronics that can be made from local Martian resources or stockpile critical materials such as silicon single crystals and high purity chemical dopants that would be needed if Mars were to shift to self-supply of integrated circuitry. It would take a long time for a small industrial society to consume a hundred kilograms of such strategic reserves if Earthly computer chips became unavailable.

==See also==
*[[Autonomous colony]]
*[[Minerals]]

[[Category: Technology]]
[[Category: Concepts]]

Settlement Strategies

2010-03-08T22:18:14Z

Frontiersman: /* Strategy 4: Genetically engineer crops to grow on Mars */

The colonization of [[Mars]] can be planned and performed in various ways. This article wants to line out basic '''colonization strategies''' with the final goal to establish a sustainable, self reliant Martian colony, that can exist and even thrive [[independence from Earth|independently from Earth]].

==Aspect of physical independence==
===Introduction===
The long term maintenance of complex equipment requires a huge number of persons. At a minimum, they will need to replace or repair critical components, such as life support, [[Limited medical care in an autonomous colony|medical technology]], [[food]] production, etc. It is hard to imagine that this can be done without [[electronics]] and [[:category:chemistry|chemistry]]. At least some technology must be maintained, for the Martian [[environmental conditions]] do not allow people to live naked on Mars. So, there is a critical mass for the number of persons in an [[autonomous colony]].

Even if fully grown, a Martian colony is not considered a closed system without any input or output from and to Earth. It is rather an independent sovereign state, fully in control of its destiny. In that regard, it need not produce all of its needs locally. Even on [[Earth]], no sovereign state would think of eliminating all trade with other nations. However, such a Martian colony can not perform a trade volume that is comparable with any state on Earth, because the shipment costs are bigger by several orders of magnitude. Therefore, the [[interplanetary commerce]] between Earth and Mars will be reduced largely to data and services that can be transmitted via a [[radio link]].

===Strategy 1: Independence step by step===
An initial colony could start with a few persons. More colonists arrive later. In the beginning it does not supply all of its needs locally. Until critical mass is attained, the settlement will need to buy certain advanced technology. Interplanetary commerce is part of this strategy. It allows starting much simpler and earlier.

The first step is an [[Earth-supported colony]]. With further shipments it can be enhanced to a [[semi-autonomous colony]]. Finally the colony can be equipped with [[equipment for autonomous growth]].

===Strategy 2: Independence at once===
Due to the risk of an interruption of the colonization program, this strategy aims at the full independence from the very start. The first settlement is built in a very spartan, but nonetheless sustainable way, with all vital supplies produced locally. This first settlement [[Unmanned setup of a whole settlement|is constructed remote controlled]] and is fully functional before the first group of settlers head for Mars.

[[Hi-tech versus lo-tech|Spartan technology]] (and hence spartan standard of living) can reduce the critical mass. The inevitable food production is the most critical part. If that can be accomplished with simple technology, the critical mass could be small enough to gain independence at once. However, this includes [[mining]] and processing of all needed materials from [[local resources]].

==Aspect of transport and development==
===Introduction===

To get an idea of the transport costs of a physically independent industrial infrastructure, the current industrial infrastructure on Earth may be estimated as 1 billion workers and 100 tonnes of structure, equipment, and spare parts per worker -- round the total mass budget to 100 billion tonnes. It currently costs $200,000 to land a kilogram on Mars. Additional infrastructure is required for Mars (e.g. pressure vessels and agricultural illumination systems), so double the infrastructure required to 200 tonnes per worker. That comes to 440 million trillion dollars. To reduce this cost by one or two orders of magnitude by creative selection of industrial equipment and workers is probably easy: some of Earth's industry is redundant in terms of self-sufficiency and thus required only for a [[population]] of billions. One or two orders of magnitude drop in transport costs may also be possible in the long term. But this only reduces the cost to at least 44 thousand trillion dollars. To reduce these costs to a reasonable sum, i.e. to the range of tens to hundreds of billions of dollars, requires radical reduction in the size of the industrial infrastructure required, which requires radical redesign of the technology (Strategy 1), or it requires further radical reductions in transport costs (Strategy 2), or a combination of both.

===Strategy 1: Minimum transport and intelligent self development===

Shipping costs are probably lower for small scale machines than large scale machines, and the [[financial effort estimation|financial frame]] will always be tight. The perfect, but unrealistic, way to colonize Mars is sending a one-kilogram probe with a handful of nanobots, preparing the whole colony, before sending a second one-kilogram probe with a handful of frozen fertilized human eggs, etc. This science fiction scenario is, of course, not realistic, but can serve as an ideal to strive for: minimize the mass and volume that needs to be launched from Earth, both initially and on an ongoing basis, by maximizing the self-sufficiency of Mars' industrial and agricultural infrastructures. This probably requires a radical redesign of almost every piece of equipment, and a radical rethinking of industrial infrastructure generally. Lo-tech (see e.g. [[pneumatics]], [[hydraulics]]), small-scale-tech (see e.g. [[blacksmith]], [[brick]], [[glass]]), and flexible tech (see e.g. [[3D Printer]]) are promising approaches.

===Strategy 2: Mass transport of ready-to-use technology===

A colony needs large machinery for life support and further expansion. All machinery is shipped from [[Earth]] to Mars. Plans can be developed for massive colonization ships moving in repeated transfers between Earth and Mars without stopping. Only the cargo and passengers start and stop. Sending a complete industrial economy to Mars is theoretically possible. It just takes a long time, a launch volume much higher than current, or some combination of the two. See cost estimates above. For example, we might spend $100 billion per year for 4.4 million years to set up an independent Mars colony using the same industrial equipment and global-scale economy as Earth, by simply transporting all needed people, structures and equipment (minus one or two orders of magnitude for creative selection of a subset) over this period of time, without any redesign except to account for Martian environmental conditions (low gravity, near-vacuum, etc.) To be anywhere close to being viable, this strategy requires extremely radical reductions in transport costs, possibly from using [[ISRU]]-based propellants, suborbital reusable launch vehicles (RLVs) combine with tether-based orbital momentum transfer, and many other theoretically possible strategies. But then again, how can we do ISRU on such a massive scale without lots of equipment already in space? Catch-22.

===Strategy 3: Develop industry on Luna to support Mars colonization===
This is inspired by the 1970's idea of Gerard O'Neil to build massive solar power plants out of lunar materials. Developing Luna first can take advantage of Luna's unique advantages to provide a massive Mars colonization effort that may not be possible otherwise.

Luna has a lower gravity well than Mars or Earth and a high vacuum at surface level. Because of this there is a potential for a low cost electric launching of cargo from the moon to orbit that Mars and Earth will never be able to match. The cost was estimated as "pennies-per-pound" on the Mike Combs Space Settlement FAQ, "Why not build solar power stations on the moon?" http://space.mike-combs.com/spacesetl.htm#on_the_moon The actual cost per pound of such cargo launch will be heavily dependent upon the size of the market for launching cargo.

Luna has one face constantly turned toward earth so that a stationary antenna there could provide continuous real time communications with less than a three second round trip delay. This allows remote control industrial development without developing artificial computer intelligence to operate the industry 45 minutes without instructions on the latest developments. The axial tilt with respect to the ecliptic is 1.5 degrees. So, there is a potential in the course of development of Luna's resources to establish a set of solar power stations within 46 kilometers of either pole linked in a grid such that there is always one of them in sunlight. The ambient vacuum makes efficient thermal insulation as easy as packing fine grains sifted from the regolith.
Association with Luna can bring Mars into the market for building structures in Earth orbit before there is even a colony on Mars. Building an industry on Luna will be handicapped by the scarcity of volatiles on Luna but this can be remedied by establishing automated industry on Mars to distill the atmosphere, mine the permafrost at 50 degrees latitude and ship the products to orbit with one system and on to Luna with another. This is probably a simpler problem then building a complete industrial base for a colony, and it would be paid for out of returns from building structures in Earth orbit.

Some criticisms of this approach:

Removing the task of industrial development to the moon mostly just switches the location of the problem. The strategy above is simply to move the problem of developing self-sustainable space industry, given high launch costs on earth, to a new locale then introduce trade between Mars and the new locale. But we can divide industry and trade between places on Mars too: if trade between Mars and the moon could solve the problem so could trade between different places on Mars. The supposed benefits of teleoperation are hypothetical and there is no strong reason to assume it would allow the needed radical reduction in the mass of industrial infrastructure to be launched. No designs for teleoperated machines are presented that would have this effect of radically reducing the mass of the industry that needs to be launched from earth. If they were, they would form part of the general alternative to radical lowering of launch costs, namely radical redesign of the industrial infrastructure. Automation indeed is probably an important element of the radical redesign of industrial technology that will be needed.

To get to the lunar surface from earth still costs within the same order of magnitude as to get to the surface of Mars (currently about $100,000/kg to the lunar surface vs. about $200,000/kg to the Martian surface). Indeed the industrial development problem on the moon is worse because it is scarce in volatiles which are crucial and voluminous inputs to industry. On earth where voluminous water is needed industry locates next to the water. Trying to get them out of Mars' gravity well all the way to the moon may not be economically viable, any more than reversing the course of a river by putting the water into a large fleet of trucks and driving back to the top of the mountains where the river comes from would be an economically viable way to conserve water. It is also easier to think about and solve the self-sufficiency problem on a location like Mars where volatiles and other industrial inputs are both readily available.

The mass driver upon which the effort depends is only a design. It has never been tested as a complete device. Importing volatiles from Mars requires that both bodies be industrialized at the same time with remotely operated equipment. That causes more complex planning requirements. Dealing only with Mars development avoids having to import elements which are scarce on Luna. Mars has all elements necessary for industrial development available in usable concentrations and quantities.

===Strategy 4: Genetically engineer crops to grow on Mars===
The amount of equipment needed to be transported to Mars could be reduced if crops could spread themselves on the natural surface of Mars. The lichen which grows in extreme conditions on Earth could perhaps be modified to grow on Mars in the current conditions of the 50 degree latitude region. It could incorporate an internal antifreeze such as polyethylene glycol. Various sorts of crops could be designed to incorporate various useful substances in their tissues. When these crops have spread themselves around Mars, colonists would come and harvest them to support their colony. This might greatly reduce the need for industrial infrastructure as a prerequisite to support agriculture.

No plant or lichen genetically engineered or otherwise has ever been grown in vacuum or in near-vacuum conditions like those on Mars, and it is far from clear that this is possible. This strategy would take many years to first develop crops to grow on Mars and then to plant them and let them spread. The plant released into the wild might mutate into an undesirable form that would not support a colony.

==Aspect of finance==
===Introduction===
Frontier settlements are capital investments from which investors expect some utility. Rarely small amounts are donated to altruistic causes (e.g. expanding humanity). Governments invest small sums in science and larger sums in national security. Most commonly, investors demand a profitable return from their investments. The sooner a colony becomes financially self-sufficient, the less investment is required, and thus the sooner an investment is likely to be made in the first place. Since radical elimination of all imports is probably impossible in the short run (see above), a colony is much more likely to be financed if it can generate exports that match or exceed the costs of imports. Since imports are costly, the exports must be valuable. They must also be affordably transportable to Earth: high value and low mass.

===Initial Capital Investments===

===Imports/Expenditures===

===Exports/Revenues===

===Net Present Value (NPV) of Investments===
Given a series of cash flows, for example annual expenditures and revenues over a period of thirty years, and an interest rate, the NPV function computes the net present value of these cash flows at the start of the series. NPV should exceed the initial capital investment (or alternatively, if capital investments are counted as cash flows, NPV should be positive).

In NPV analysis risk is represented by increasing the interest rate (the "risk premium"). If risk is not fairly evenly distributed over time NPV is less accurate and real options analysis is required for both for accuracy and for designing better strategies. However for most purposes NPV is fine, and it's also easier (you can use a spreadsheet, whereas real options analysis requires more sophisticated software).

For more information, see your spreadsheet's help pages for "NPV", "IRR", and related functions.

==Golden Mars scenario==
===Introduction===
We need concrete strategic and financial scenarios to work with. Since colonizing Mars is currently far from economically viable, we have to make some hypothetical, but plausible, assumptions, in order to develop scenarios that are financially and otherwise strategically viable. Here is one, the Golden Mars scenario:

(1) The same geological processes that formed gold ores on Earth once operated on Mars and have left there concentrations of gold on its surface not seen by humans since they first started finding the easy pieces on Earth c. 4000 BC. In particular, 1,000 kg of equipment on the Martian surface can find and ship to the Mars spaceport 10 kg of gold nuggets and flakes per year. Some technological goals to strive for: 10,000 kg of imported equipment (or 100,000 kg of native equipment, because these would be the bulkier parts) requires one person to operate and maintain it, and that person requires another 10,000 kg of equipment to support him. Some of aforementioned equipment should be made on Mars if that increases the economic return, which requires further labor, otherwise it should be imported.

(2) Because of the development of [[ISRU]]-based propellants, the costs of transport from Earth have been reduced by two orders of magnitude (to $2,000/kg) and the costs of transport from Mars surface to Earth surface are $1,000/kg.

(3) Plausible assumptions can be made about making things from Martian raw materials, as long as every part (use parts lists) and every material can be accounted for all the way back to through the supply chain (really supply tree, it keeps branching at every step) to Martian mines.

(4) The price of gold on Earth is about the same as today: $1,100/oz. * 1/28 oz/g * 1,000 g/kg = $39,000/kg. The market for gold production on Earth is about $100 billion/year, and the above-ground inventories are in the trillions of dollars, so you can produce at least $50 billion/year worth of gold before you start saturating the market and the price drops. (To be more precise about this, look up research on the supply/demand curve for gold, I'm sure economists must have researched this many times).

Can you design this Mars colony to be profitable, and thus attract investors?

===Make vs. Import Tradeoffs===

===Initial Capital Investments===

===Imports/Expenditures===

===Exports/Revenues===

===Net Present Value of Investments===

[[Category: Concepts]]
[[Category: Manned Missions]]
[[Category: Settlements]]

Settlement Strategies

2010-03-08T22:16:25Z

Frontiersman: /* Strategy 4: Genetically engineer crops to grow on Mars */

The colonization of [[Mars]] can be planned and performed in various ways. This article wants to line out basic '''colonization strategies''' with the final goal to establish a sustainable, self reliant Martian colony, that can exist and even thrive [[independence from Earth|independently from Earth]].

==Aspect of physical independence==
===Introduction===
The long term maintenance of complex equipment requires a huge number of persons. At a minimum, they will need to replace or repair critical components, such as life support, [[Limited medical care in an autonomous colony|medical technology]], [[food]] production, etc. It is hard to imagine that this can be done without [[electronics]] and [[:category:chemistry|chemistry]]. At least some technology must be maintained, for the Martian [[environmental conditions]] do not allow people to live naked on Mars. So, there is a critical mass for the number of persons in an [[autonomous colony]].

Even if fully grown, a Martian colony is not considered a closed system without any input or output from and to Earth. It is rather an independent sovereign state, fully in control of its destiny. In that regard, it need not produce all of its needs locally. Even on [[Earth]], no sovereign state would think of eliminating all trade with other nations. However, such a Martian colony can not perform a trade volume that is comparable with any state on Earth, because the shipment costs are bigger by several orders of magnitude. Therefore, the [[interplanetary commerce]] between Earth and Mars will be reduced largely to data and services that can be transmitted via a [[radio link]].

===Strategy 1: Independence step by step===
An initial colony could start with a few persons. More colonists arrive later. In the beginning it does not supply all of its needs locally. Until critical mass is attained, the settlement will need to buy certain advanced technology. Interplanetary commerce is part of this strategy. It allows starting much simpler and earlier.

The first step is an [[Earth-supported colony]]. With further shipments it can be enhanced to a [[semi-autonomous colony]]. Finally the colony can be equipped with [[equipment for autonomous growth]].

===Strategy 2: Independence at once===
Due to the risk of an interruption of the colonization program, this strategy aims at the full independence from the very start. The first settlement is built in a very spartan, but nonetheless sustainable way, with all vital supplies produced locally. This first settlement [[Unmanned setup of a whole settlement|is constructed remote controlled]] and is fully functional before the first group of settlers head for Mars.

[[Hi-tech versus lo-tech|Spartan technology]] (and hence spartan standard of living) can reduce the critical mass. The inevitable food production is the most critical part. If that can be accomplished with simple technology, the critical mass could be small enough to gain independence at once. However, this includes [[mining]] and processing of all needed materials from [[local resources]].

==Aspect of transport and development==
===Introduction===

To get an idea of the transport costs of a physically independent industrial infrastructure, the current industrial infrastructure on Earth may be estimated as 1 billion workers and 100 tonnes of structure, equipment, and spare parts per worker -- round the total mass budget to 100 billion tonnes. It currently costs $200,000 to land a kilogram on Mars. Additional infrastructure is required for Mars (e.g. pressure vessels and agricultural illumination systems), so double the infrastructure required to 200 tonnes per worker. That comes to 440 million trillion dollars. To reduce this cost by one or two orders of magnitude by creative selection of industrial equipment and workers is probably easy: some of Earth's industry is redundant in terms of self-sufficiency and thus required only for a [[population]] of billions. One or two orders of magnitude drop in transport costs may also be possible in the long term. But this only reduces the cost to at least 44 thousand trillion dollars. To reduce these costs to a reasonable sum, i.e. to the range of tens to hundreds of billions of dollars, requires radical reduction in the size of the industrial infrastructure required, which requires radical redesign of the technology (Strategy 1), or it requires further radical reductions in transport costs (Strategy 2), or a combination of both.

===Strategy 1: Minimum transport and intelligent self development===

Shipping costs are probably lower for small scale machines than large scale machines, and the [[financial effort estimation|financial frame]] will always be tight. The perfect, but unrealistic, way to colonize Mars is sending a one-kilogram probe with a handful of nanobots, preparing the whole colony, before sending a second one-kilogram probe with a handful of frozen fertilized human eggs, etc. This science fiction scenario is, of course, not realistic, but can serve as an ideal to strive for: minimize the mass and volume that needs to be launched from Earth, both initially and on an ongoing basis, by maximizing the self-sufficiency of Mars' industrial and agricultural infrastructures. This probably requires a radical redesign of almost every piece of equipment, and a radical rethinking of industrial infrastructure generally. Lo-tech (see e.g. [[pneumatics]], [[hydraulics]]), small-scale-tech (see e.g. [[blacksmith]], [[brick]], [[glass]]), and flexible tech (see e.g. [[3D Printer]]) are promising approaches.

===Strategy 2: Mass transport of ready-to-use technology===

A colony needs large machinery for life support and further expansion. All machinery is shipped from [[Earth]] to Mars. Plans can be developed for massive colonization ships moving in repeated transfers between Earth and Mars without stopping. Only the cargo and passengers start and stop. Sending a complete industrial economy to Mars is theoretically possible. It just takes a long time, a launch volume much higher than current, or some combination of the two. See cost estimates above. For example, we might spend $100 billion per year for 4.4 million years to set up an independent Mars colony using the same industrial equipment and global-scale economy as Earth, by simply transporting all needed people, structures and equipment (minus one or two orders of magnitude for creative selection of a subset) over this period of time, without any redesign except to account for Martian environmental conditions (low gravity, near-vacuum, etc.) To be anywhere close to being viable, this strategy requires extremely radical reductions in transport costs, possibly from using [[ISRU]]-based propellants, suborbital reusable launch vehicles (RLVs) combine with tether-based orbital momentum transfer, and many other theoretically possible strategies. But then again, how can we do ISRU on such a massive scale without lots of equipment already in space? Catch-22.

===Strategy 3: Develop industry on Luna to support Mars colonization===
This is inspired by the 1970's idea of Gerard O'Neil to build massive solar power plants out of lunar materials. Developing Luna first can take advantage of Luna's unique advantages to provide a massive Mars colonization effort that may not be possible otherwise.

Luna has a lower gravity well than Mars or Earth and a high vacuum at surface level. Because of this there is a potential for a low cost electric launching of cargo from the moon to orbit that Mars and Earth will never be able to match. The cost was estimated as "pennies-per-pound" on the Mike Combs Space Settlement FAQ, "Why not build solar power stations on the moon?" http://space.mike-combs.com/spacesetl.htm#on_the_moon The actual cost per pound of such cargo launch will be heavily dependent upon the size of the market for launching cargo.

Luna has one face constantly turned toward earth so that a stationary antenna there could provide continuous real time communications with less than a three second round trip delay. This allows remote control industrial development without developing artificial computer intelligence to operate the industry 45 minutes without instructions on the latest developments. The axial tilt with respect to the ecliptic is 1.5 degrees. So, there is a potential in the course of development of Luna's resources to establish a set of solar power stations within 46 kilometers of either pole linked in a grid such that there is always one of them in sunlight. The ambient vacuum makes efficient thermal insulation as easy as packing fine grains sifted from the regolith.
Association with Luna can bring Mars into the market for building structures in Earth orbit before there is even a colony on Mars. Building an industry on Luna will be handicapped by the scarcity of volatiles on Luna but this can be remedied by establishing automated industry on Mars to distill the atmosphere, mine the permafrost at 50 degrees latitude and ship the products to orbit with one system and on to Luna with another. This is probably a simpler problem then building a complete industrial base for a colony, and it would be paid for out of returns from building structures in Earth orbit.

Some criticisms of this approach:

Removing the task of industrial development to the moon mostly just switches the location of the problem. The strategy above is simply to move the problem of developing self-sustainable space industry, given high launch costs on earth, to a new locale then introduce trade between Mars and the new locale. But we can divide industry and trade between places on Mars too: if trade between Mars and the moon could solve the problem so could trade between different places on Mars. The supposed benefits of teleoperation are hypothetical and there is no strong reason to assume it would allow the needed radical reduction in the mass of industrial infrastructure to be launched. No designs for teleoperated machines are presented that would have this effect of radically reducing the mass of the industry that needs to be launched from earth. If they were, they would form part of the general alternative to radical lowering of launch costs, namely radical redesign of the industrial infrastructure. Automation indeed is probably an important element of the radical redesign of industrial technology that will be needed.

To get to the lunar surface from earth still costs within the same order of magnitude as to get to the surface of Mars (currently about $100,000/kg to the lunar surface vs. about $200,000/kg to the Martian surface). Indeed the industrial development problem on the moon is worse because it is scarce in volatiles which are crucial and voluminous inputs to industry. On earth where voluminous water is needed industry locates next to the water. Trying to get them out of Mars' gravity well all the way to the moon may not be economically viable, any more than reversing the course of a river by putting the water into a large fleet of trucks and driving back to the top of the mountains where the river comes from would be an economically viable way to conserve water. It is also easier to think about and solve the self-sufficiency problem on a location like Mars where volatiles and other industrial inputs are both readily available.

The mass driver upon which the effort depends is only a design. It has never been tested as a complete device. Importing volatiles from Mars requires that both bodies be industrialized at the same time with remotely operated equipment. That causes more complex planning requirements. Dealing only with Mars development avoids having to import elements which are scarce on Luna. Mars has all elements necessary for industrial development available in usable concentrations and quantities.

===Strategy 4: Genetically engineer crops to grow on Mars===
The amount of equipment needed to be transported to Mars could be reduced if crops could spread themselves on the natural surface of Mars. The lichen which grows in extreme conditions on Earth could perhaps be modified to grow on Mars in the current conditions of the 50 degree latitude region. It could incorporate an internal antifreeze such as polyethylene glycol. Various sorts of crops could be designed to incorporate various useful substances in their tissues. When these crops have spread themselves around Mars, colonists would come and harvest them to support their colony. This might greatly reduce the need for industrial infrastructure as a prerequisite to support agriculture.

No plant or lichen genetically engineered or otherwise has ever been grown in vacuum or in the near-vacuum conditions on Mars, and it is far from clear that this is possible. This strategy would take many years to first develop crops to grow on Mars and then to plant them and let them spread. The plant released into the wild might mutate into an undesirable form that would not support a colony.

==Aspect of finance==
===Introduction===
Frontier settlements are capital investments from which investors expect some utility. Rarely small amounts are donated to altruistic causes (e.g. expanding humanity). Governments invest small sums in science and larger sums in national security. Most commonly, investors demand a profitable return from their investments. The sooner a colony becomes financially self-sufficient, the less investment is required, and thus the sooner an investment is likely to be made in the first place. Since radical elimination of all imports is probably impossible in the short run (see above), a colony is much more likely to be financed if it can generate exports that match or exceed the costs of imports. Since imports are costly, the exports must be valuable. They must also be affordably transportable to Earth: high value and low mass.

===Initial Capital Investments===

===Imports/Expenditures===

===Exports/Revenues===

===Net Present Value (NPV) of Investments===
Given a series of cash flows, for example annual expenditures and revenues over a period of thirty years, and an interest rate, the NPV function computes the net present value of these cash flows at the start of the series. NPV should exceed the initial capital investment (or alternatively, if capital investments are counted as cash flows, NPV should be positive).

In NPV analysis risk is represented by increasing the interest rate (the "risk premium"). If risk is not fairly evenly distributed over time NPV is less accurate and real options analysis is required for both for accuracy and for designing better strategies. However for most purposes NPV is fine, and it's also easier (you can use a spreadsheet, whereas real options analysis requires more sophisticated software).

For more information, see your spreadsheet's help pages for "NPV", "IRR", and related functions.

==Golden Mars scenario==
===Introduction===
We need concrete strategic and financial scenarios to work with. Since colonizing Mars is currently far from economically viable, we have to make some hypothetical, but plausible, assumptions, in order to develop scenarios that are financially and otherwise strategically viable. Here is one, the Golden Mars scenario:

(1) The same geological processes that formed gold ores on Earth once operated on Mars and have left there concentrations of gold on its surface not seen by humans since they first started finding the easy pieces on Earth c. 4000 BC. In particular, 1,000 kg of equipment on the Martian surface can find and ship to the Mars spaceport 10 kg of gold nuggets and flakes per year. Some technological goals to strive for: 10,000 kg of imported equipment (or 100,000 kg of native equipment, because these would be the bulkier parts) requires one person to operate and maintain it, and that person requires another 10,000 kg of equipment to support him. Some of aforementioned equipment should be made on Mars if that increases the economic return, which requires further labor, otherwise it should be imported.

(2) Because of the development of [[ISRU]]-based propellants, the costs of transport from Earth have been reduced by two orders of magnitude (to $2,000/kg) and the costs of transport from Mars surface to Earth surface are $1,000/kg.

(3) Plausible assumptions can be made about making things from Martian raw materials, as long as every part (use parts lists) and every material can be accounted for all the way back to through the supply chain (really supply tree, it keeps branching at every step) to Martian mines.

(4) The price of gold on Earth is about the same as today: $1,100/oz. * 1/28 oz/g * 1,000 g/kg = $39,000/kg. The market for gold production on Earth is about $100 billion/year, and the above-ground inventories are in the trillions of dollars, so you can produce at least $50 billion/year worth of gold before you start saturating the market and the price drops. (To be more precise about this, look up research on the supply/demand curve for gold, I'm sure economists must have researched this many times).

Can you design this Mars colony to be profitable, and thus attract investors?

===Make vs. Import Tradeoffs===

===Initial Capital Investments===

===Imports/Expenditures===

===Exports/Revenues===

===Net Present Value of Investments===

[[Category: Concepts]]
[[Category: Manned Missions]]
[[Category: Settlements]]

Settlement Strategies

2010-03-08T22:11:14Z

Frontiersman: /* Strategy 3: Develop industry on Luna to support Mars colonization */

The colonization of [[Mars]] can be planned and performed in various ways. This article wants to line out basic '''colonization strategies''' with the final goal to establish a sustainable, self reliant Martian colony, that can exist and even thrive [[independence from Earth|independently from Earth]].

==Aspect of physical independence==
===Introduction===
The long term maintenance of complex equipment requires a huge number of persons. At a minimum, they will need to replace or repair critical components, such as life support, [[Limited medical care in an autonomous colony|medical technology]], [[food]] production, etc. It is hard to imagine that this can be done without [[electronics]] and [[:category:chemistry|chemistry]]. At least some technology must be maintained, for the Martian [[environmental conditions]] do not allow people to live naked on Mars. So, there is a critical mass for the number of persons in an [[autonomous colony]].

Even if fully grown, a Martian colony is not considered a closed system without any input or output from and to Earth. It is rather an independent sovereign state, fully in control of its destiny. In that regard, it need not produce all of its needs locally. Even on [[Earth]], no sovereign state would think of eliminating all trade with other nations. However, such a Martian colony can not perform a trade volume that is comparable with any state on Earth, because the shipment costs are bigger by several orders of magnitude. Therefore, the [[interplanetary commerce]] between Earth and Mars will be reduced largely to data and services that can be transmitted via a [[radio link]].

===Strategy 1: Independence step by step===
An initial colony could start with a few persons. More colonists arrive later. In the beginning it does not supply all of its needs locally. Until critical mass is attained, the settlement will need to buy certain advanced technology. Interplanetary commerce is part of this strategy. It allows starting much simpler and earlier.

The first step is an [[Earth-supported colony]]. With further shipments it can be enhanced to a [[semi-autonomous colony]]. Finally the colony can be equipped with [[equipment for autonomous growth]].

===Strategy 2: Independence at once===
Due to the risk of an interruption of the colonization program, this strategy aims at the full independence from the very start. The first settlement is built in a very spartan, but nonetheless sustainable way, with all vital supplies produced locally. This first settlement [[Unmanned setup of a whole settlement|is constructed remote controlled]] and is fully functional before the first group of settlers head for Mars.

[[Hi-tech versus lo-tech|Spartan technology]] (and hence spartan standard of living) can reduce the critical mass. The inevitable food production is the most critical part. If that can be accomplished with simple technology, the critical mass could be small enough to gain independence at once. However, this includes [[mining]] and processing of all needed materials from [[local resources]].

==Aspect of transport and development==
===Introduction===

To get an idea of the transport costs of a physically independent industrial infrastructure, the current industrial infrastructure on Earth may be estimated as 1 billion workers and 100 tonnes of structure, equipment, and spare parts per worker -- round the total mass budget to 100 billion tonnes. It currently costs $200,000 to land a kilogram on Mars. Additional infrastructure is required for Mars (e.g. pressure vessels and agricultural illumination systems), so double the infrastructure required to 200 tonnes per worker. That comes to 440 million trillion dollars. To reduce this cost by one or two orders of magnitude by creative selection of industrial equipment and workers is probably easy: some of Earth's industry is redundant in terms of self-sufficiency and thus required only for a [[population]] of billions. One or two orders of magnitude drop in transport costs may also be possible in the long term. But this only reduces the cost to at least 44 thousand trillion dollars. To reduce these costs to a reasonable sum, i.e. to the range of tens to hundreds of billions of dollars, requires radical reduction in the size of the industrial infrastructure required, which requires radical redesign of the technology (Strategy 1), or it requires further radical reductions in transport costs (Strategy 2), or a combination of both.

===Strategy 1: Minimum transport and intelligent self development===

Shipping costs are probably lower for small scale machines than large scale machines, and the [[financial effort estimation|financial frame]] will always be tight. The perfect, but unrealistic, way to colonize Mars is sending a one-kilogram probe with a handful of nanobots, preparing the whole colony, before sending a second one-kilogram probe with a handful of frozen fertilized human eggs, etc. This science fiction scenario is, of course, not realistic, but can serve as an ideal to strive for: minimize the mass and volume that needs to be launched from Earth, both initially and on an ongoing basis, by maximizing the self-sufficiency of Mars' industrial and agricultural infrastructures. This probably requires a radical redesign of almost every piece of equipment, and a radical rethinking of industrial infrastructure generally. Lo-tech (see e.g. [[pneumatics]], [[hydraulics]]), small-scale-tech (see e.g. [[blacksmith]], [[brick]], [[glass]]), and flexible tech (see e.g. [[3D Printer]]) are promising approaches.

===Strategy 2: Mass transport of ready-to-use technology===

A colony needs large machinery for life support and further expansion. All machinery is shipped from [[Earth]] to Mars. Plans can be developed for massive colonization ships moving in repeated transfers between Earth and Mars without stopping. Only the cargo and passengers start and stop. Sending a complete industrial economy to Mars is theoretically possible. It just takes a long time, a launch volume much higher than current, or some combination of the two. See cost estimates above. For example, we might spend $100 billion per year for 4.4 million years to set up an independent Mars colony using the same industrial equipment and global-scale economy as Earth, by simply transporting all needed people, structures and equipment (minus one or two orders of magnitude for creative selection of a subset) over this period of time, without any redesign except to account for Martian environmental conditions (low gravity, near-vacuum, etc.) To be anywhere close to being viable, this strategy requires extremely radical reductions in transport costs, possibly from using [[ISRU]]-based propellants, suborbital reusable launch vehicles (RLVs) combine with tether-based orbital momentum transfer, and many other theoretically possible strategies. But then again, how can we do ISRU on such a massive scale without lots of equipment already in space? Catch-22.

===Strategy 3: Develop industry on Luna to support Mars colonization===
This is inspired by the 1970's idea of Gerard O'Neil to build massive solar power plants out of lunar materials. Developing Luna first can take advantage of Luna's unique advantages to provide a massive Mars colonization effort that may not be possible otherwise.

Luna has a lower gravity well than Mars or Earth and a high vacuum at surface level. Because of this there is a potential for a low cost electric launching of cargo from the moon to orbit that Mars and Earth will never be able to match. The cost was estimated as "pennies-per-pound" on the Mike Combs Space Settlement FAQ, "Why not build solar power stations on the moon?" http://space.mike-combs.com/spacesetl.htm#on_the_moon The actual cost per pound of such cargo launch will be heavily dependent upon the size of the market for launching cargo.

Luna has one face constantly turned toward earth so that a stationary antenna there could provide continuous real time communications with less than a three second round trip delay. This allows remote control industrial development without developing artificial computer intelligence to operate the industry 45 minutes without instructions on the latest developments. The axial tilt with respect to the ecliptic is 1.5 degrees. So, there is a potential in the course of development of Luna's resources to establish a set of solar power stations within 46 kilometers of either pole linked in a grid such that there is always one of them in sunlight. The ambient vacuum makes efficient thermal insulation as easy as packing fine grains sifted from the regolith.
Association with Luna can bring Mars into the market for building structures in Earth orbit before there is even a colony on Mars. Building an industry on Luna will be handicapped by the scarcity of volatiles on Luna but this can be remedied by establishing automated industry on Mars to distill the atmosphere, mine the permafrost at 50 degrees latitude and ship the products to orbit with one system and on to Luna with another. This is probably a simpler problem then building a complete industrial base for a colony, and it would be paid for out of returns from building structures in Earth orbit.

Some criticisms of this approach:

Removing the task of industrial development to the moon mostly just switches the location of the problem. The strategy above is simply to move the problem of developing self-sustainable space industry, given high launch costs on earth, to a new locale then introduce trade between Mars and the new locale. But we can divide industry and trade between places on Mars too: if trade between Mars and the moon could solve the problem so could trade between different places on Mars. The supposed benefits of teleoperation are hypothetical and there is no strong reason to assume it would allow the needed radical reduction in the mass of industrial infrastructure to be launched. No designs for teleoperated machines are presented that would have this effect of radically reducing the mass of the industry that needs to be launched from earth. If they were, they would form part of the general alternative to radical lowering of launch costs, namely radical redesign of the industrial infrastructure. Automation indeed is probably an important element of the radical redesign of industrial technology that will be needed.

To get to the lunar surface from earth still costs within the same order of magnitude as to get to the surface of Mars (currently about $100,000/kg to the lunar surface vs. about $200,000/kg to the Martian surface). Indeed the industrial development problem on the moon is worse because it is scarce in volatiles which are crucial and voluminous inputs to industry. On earth where voluminous water is needed industry locates next to the water. Trying to get them out of Mars' gravity well all the way to the moon may not be economically viable, any more than reversing the course of a river by putting the water into a large fleet of trucks and driving back to the top of the mountains where the river comes from would be an economically viable way to conserve water. It is also easier to think about and solve the self-sufficiency problem on a location like Mars where volatiles and other industrial inputs are both readily available.

The mass driver upon which the effort depends is only a design. It has never been tested as a complete device. Importing volatiles from Mars requires that both bodies be industrialized at the same time with remotely operated equipment. That causes more complex planning requirements. Dealing only with Mars development avoids having to import elements which are scarce on Luna. Mars has all elements necessary for industrial development available in usable concentrations and quantities.

===Strategy 4: Genetically engineer crops to grow on Mars===
The amount of equipment needed to be transported to Mars could be reduced if crops could spread themselves on the natural surface of Mars. The lichen which grows in extreme conditions on Earth could perhaps be modified to grow on Mars in the current conditions of the 50 degree latitude region. It could incorporate an internal antifreeze such as polyethylene glycol. Various sorts of crops could be designed to incorporate various useful substances in their tissues. When these crops have spread themselves around Mars, colonists would come and harvest them to support their colony.

This strategy would take many years to first develop crops to grow on Mars and then to plant them and let them spread. The plant released into the wild might mutate into an undesirable form that would not support a colony.

==Aspect of finance==
===Introduction===
Frontier settlements are capital investments from which investors expect some utility. Rarely small amounts are donated to altruistic causes (e.g. expanding humanity). Governments invest small sums in science and larger sums in national security. Most commonly, investors demand a profitable return from their investments. The sooner a colony becomes financially self-sufficient, the less investment is required, and thus the sooner an investment is likely to be made in the first place. Since radical elimination of all imports is probably impossible in the short run (see above), a colony is much more likely to be financed if it can generate exports that match or exceed the costs of imports. Since imports are costly, the exports must be valuable. They must also be affordably transportable to Earth: high value and low mass.

===Initial Capital Investments===

===Imports/Expenditures===

===Exports/Revenues===

===Net Present Value (NPV) of Investments===
Given a series of cash flows, for example annual expenditures and revenues over a period of thirty years, and an interest rate, the NPV function computes the net present value of these cash flows at the start of the series. NPV should exceed the initial capital investment (or alternatively, if capital investments are counted as cash flows, NPV should be positive).

In NPV analysis risk is represented by increasing the interest rate (the "risk premium"). If risk is not fairly evenly distributed over time NPV is less accurate and real options analysis is required for both for accuracy and for designing better strategies. However for most purposes NPV is fine, and it's also easier (you can use a spreadsheet, whereas real options analysis requires more sophisticated software).

For more information, see your spreadsheet's help pages for "NPV", "IRR", and related functions.

==Golden Mars scenario==
===Introduction===
We need concrete strategic and financial scenarios to work with. Since colonizing Mars is currently far from economically viable, we have to make some hypothetical, but plausible, assumptions, in order to develop scenarios that are financially and otherwise strategically viable. Here is one, the Golden Mars scenario:

(1) The same geological processes that formed gold ores on Earth once operated on Mars and have left there concentrations of gold on its surface not seen by humans since they first started finding the easy pieces on Earth c. 4000 BC. In particular, 1,000 kg of equipment on the Martian surface can find and ship to the Mars spaceport 10 kg of gold nuggets and flakes per year. Some technological goals to strive for: 10,000 kg of imported equipment (or 100,000 kg of native equipment, because these would be the bulkier parts) requires one person to operate and maintain it, and that person requires another 10,000 kg of equipment to support him. Some of aforementioned equipment should be made on Mars if that increases the economic return, which requires further labor, otherwise it should be imported.

(2) Because of the development of [[ISRU]]-based propellants, the costs of transport from Earth have been reduced by two orders of magnitude (to $2,000/kg) and the costs of transport from Mars surface to Earth surface are $1,000/kg.

(3) Plausible assumptions can be made about making things from Martian raw materials, as long as every part (use parts lists) and every material can be accounted for all the way back to through the supply chain (really supply tree, it keeps branching at every step) to Martian mines.

(4) The price of gold on Earth is about the same as today: $1,100/oz. * 1/28 oz/g * 1,000 g/kg = $39,000/kg. The market for gold production on Earth is about $100 billion/year, and the above-ground inventories are in the trillions of dollars, so you can produce at least $50 billion/year worth of gold before you start saturating the market and the price drops. (To be more precise about this, look up research on the supply/demand curve for gold, I'm sure economists must have researched this many times).

Can you design this Mars colony to be profitable, and thus attract investors?

===Make vs. Import Tradeoffs===

===Initial Capital Investments===

===Imports/Expenditures===

===Exports/Revenues===

===Net Present Value of Investments===

[[Category: Concepts]]
[[Category: Manned Missions]]
[[Category: Settlements]]

Talk:Settlement Strategies

2010-03-08T21:46:57Z

Frontiersman: /* Using a Lunar Stepping Stone */

Talk:Settlement Strategies

2010-03-08T21:42:36Z

Frontiersman: /* Using a Lunar Stepping Stone */

Talk:Settlement Strategies

2010-02-25T02:27:05Z

Frontiersman: /* Golden Mars scenario */

Talk:Settlement Strategies

2010-02-25T02:23:31Z

Frontiersman: /* Golden Mars scenario */

Talk:Aluminum

2010-02-23T04:26:39Z

Frontiersman:

== Redundancy ==
We have redundant wording in the Aluminum and the Smelting articles. Perhaps we can get something else in the Aluminum article like its use on Mars.--[[User:Farred|Farred]] 03:43, 22 February 2010 (UTC)
:It should be removed from Smelting since it's referred to as reduction, not smelting. Either that or call the Smelting article Smelting and Reduction. Some of the text is not redundant and you could transfer it over to the other article. In whichever article you take it out of put a "See Also" to the other article. [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 04:26, 23 February 2010 (UTC)

Talk:Nuclear brick

2010-02-23T04:20:23Z

Frontiersman:

== Native americum 241? ==
The source referenced for nuclear bricks only indicates that americum 241 is a biproduct of nuclear reactors. There is nothing about any possibility of producing americum 242 from potential native americum 241 on Mars.--[[User:Farred|Farred]] 03:18, 22 February 2010 (UTC)

According to the Wikipedia article on Americium there are no isotopes of Americium with half lives greater than hundreds of years. This precludes there being any native source of this element on Earth or Mars. It is completely an artificial element.--[[User:Farred|Farred]] 03:32, 22 February 2010 (UTC)

:Good catch, thanks. Fixed. [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 04:19, 23 February 2010 (UTC)

Talk:Nuclear brick

2010-02-23T04:19:54Z

Frontiersman:

== Native americum 241? ==
The source referenced for nuclear bricks only indicates that americum 241 is a biproduct of nuclear reactors. There is nothing about any possibility of producing americum 242 from potential native americum 241 on Mars.--[[User:Farred|Farred]] 03:18, 22 February 2010 (UTC)

According to the Wikipedia article on Americium there are no isotopes of Americium with half lives greater than hundreds of years. This precludes there being any native source of this element on Earth or Mars. It is completely an artificial element.--[[User:Farred|Farred]] 03:32, 22 February 2010 (UTC)

Good catch, thanks. Fixed. [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 04:19, 23 February 2010 (UTC)

Nuclear brick

2010-02-23T04:19:09Z

Frontiersman:

A nuclear brick is a small [[RTG]] or nuclear reactor built to the form-factor of a [[brick]] and controlled by a wireless network. They are to power brick furnaces and heaters for [[smelting]], casting, [[glass]] melting and curing, heating of habitats and greenhouses, heating of chemicals, and other thermal processes. A plutonium-powered RTG could last several years but has a much lower specific power than an americium-242-powered nuclear reactor. A 1.6 kg americium core can produce 70 kW of thermal power but this core must be replaced every 80 days of operation. Americium-242 exists on Earth as a byproduct of normal nuclear reactors. <ref name=Genuth>Genuth, Iddo, 2006, ''Americium Power Source'', TFOT The Future of Things. [http://thefutureofthings.com/articles.php?itemId=26/64/] </ref>

==References==
<references/>

Nuclear brick

2010-02-23T04:18:47Z

Frontiersman: native Am-241 unlikely

Talk:Settlement Strategies

2010-02-23T04:15:44Z

Frontiersman:

Settlement Strategies

2010-02-23T04:14:31Z

Frontiersman: /* Strategy 3: Develop industry on the Moon and then transport it to Mars */

The colonization of [[Mars]] can be planned and performed in various ways. This article wants to line out basic '''colonization strategies''' with the final goal to establish a sustainable, self reliant Martian colony, that can exist and even thrive [[independence from Earth|independently from Earth]].

==Aspect of physical independence==
===Introduction===
The long term maintenance of complex equipment requires a huge number of persons. At a minimum, they will need to replace or repair critical components, such as life support, [[Limited medical care in an autonomous colony|medical technology]], [[food]] production, etc. It is hard to imagine that this can be done without [[electronics]] and [[:category:chemistry|chemistry]]. At least some technology must be maintained, for the Martian [[environmental conditions]] do not allow people to live naked on Mars. So, there is a critical mass for the number of persons in an [[autonomous colony]].

Even if fully grown, a Martian colony is not considered a closed system without any input or output from and to Earth. It is rather an independent sovereign state, fully in control of its destiny. In that regard, it need not produce all of its needs locally. Even on [[Earth]], no sovereign state would think of eliminating all trade with other nations. However, such a Martian colony can not perform a trade volume that is comparable with any state on Earth, because the shipment costs are bigger by several orders of magnitude. Therefore, the [[interplanetary commerce]] between Earth and Mars will be reduced largely to data and services that can be transmitted via a [[radio link]].

===Strategy 1: Independence step by step===
An initial colony could start with a few persons. More colonists arrive later. In the beginning it does not supply all of its needs locally. Until critical mass is attained, the settlement will need to buy certain advanced technology. Interplanetary commerce is part of this strategy. It allows starting much simpler and earlier.

The first step is an [[Earth-supported colony]]. With further shipments it can be enhanced to a [[semi-autonomous colony]]. Finally the colony can be equipped with [[equipment for autonomous growth]].

===Strategy 2: Independence at once===
Due to the risk of an interruption of the colonization program, this strategy aims at the full independence from the very start. The first settlement is built in a very spartan, but nonetheless sustainable way, with all vital supplies produced locally. This first settlement [[Unmanned setup of a whole settlement|is constructed remote controlled]] and is fully functional before the first group of settlers head for Mars.

[[Hi-tech versus lo-tech|Spartan technology]] (and hence spartan standard of living) can reduce the critical mass. The inevitable food production is the most critical part. If that can be accomplished with simple technology, the critical mass could be small enough to gain independence at once. However, this includes [[mining]] and processing of all needed materials from [[local resources]].

==Aspect of transport and development==
===Introduction===

To get an idea of the transport costs of a physically independent industrial infrastructure, the current industrial infrastructure on Earth may be estimated as 1 billion workers and 100 tonnes of structure, equipment, and spare parts per worker -- round the total mass budget to 100 billion tonnes. It currently costs $200,000 to land a kilogram on Mars. Additional infrastructure is required for Mars (e.g. pressure vessels and agricultural illumination systems), so double the infrastructure required to 200 tonnes per worker. That comes to 440 million trillion dollars. To reduce this cost by one or two orders of magnitude by creative selection of industrial equipment and workers is probably easy: some of Earth's industry is redundant in terms of self-sufficiency and thus required only for a [[population]] of billions. One or two orders of magnitude drop in transport costs may also be possible in the long term. But this only reduces the cost to at least 44 thousand trillion dollars. To reduce these costs to a reasonable sum, i.e. to the range of tens to hundreds of billions of dollars, requires radical reduction in the size of the industrial infrastructure required, which requires radical redesign of the technology (Strategy 1), or it requires further radical reductions in transport costs (Strategy 2), or a combination of both.

===Strategy 1: Minimum transport and intelligent self development===

Shipping costs are probably lower for small scale machines than large scale machines, and the [[financial effort estimation|financial frame]] will always be tight. The perfect, but unrealistic, way to colonize Mars is sending a one-kilogram probe with a handful of nanobots, preparing the whole colony, before sending a second one-kilogram probe with a handful of frozen fertilized human eggs, etc. This science fiction scenario is, of course, not realistic, but can serve as an ideal to strive for: minimize the mass and volume that needs to be launched from Earth, both initially and on an ongoing basis, by maximizing the self-sufficiency of Mars' industrial and agricultural infrastructures. This probably requires a radical redesign of almost every piece of equipment, and a radical rethinking of industrial infrastructure generally. Lo-tech (see e.g. [[pneumatics]], [[hydraulics]]), small-scale-tech (see e.g. [[blacksmith]], [[brick]], [[glass]]), and flexible tech (see e.g. [[3D Printer]]) are promising approaches.

===Strategy 2: Mass transport of ready-to-use technology===

A colony needs large machinery for life support and further expansion. All machinery is shipped from [[Earth]] to Mars. Plans can be developed for massive colonization ships moving in repeated transfers between Earth and Mars without stopping. Only the cargo and passengers start and stop. Sending a complete industrial economy to Mars is theoretically possible. It just takes a long time, a launch volume much higher than current, or some combination of the two. See cost estimates above. For example, we might spend $100 billion per year for 4.4 million years to set up an independent Mars colony using the same industrial equipment and global-scale economy as Earth, by simply transporting all needed people, structures and equipment (minus one or two orders of magnitude for creative selection of a subset) over this period of time, without any redesign except to account for Martian environmental conditions (low gravity, near-vacuum, etc.) To be anywhere close to being viable, this strategy requires extremely radical reductions in transport costs, possibly from using [[ISRU]]-based propellants, suborbital reusable launch vehicles (RLVs) combine with tether-based orbital momentum transfer, and many other theoretically possible strategies. But then again, how can we do ISRU on such a massive scale without lots of equipment already in space? Catch-22.

===Strategy 3: Develop industry on the Moon and then transport it to Mars ===

This is inspired by the 1970's idea of Gerard O'Neil to build massive solar power plants out of lunar materials. Developing Luna first can take advantage of Luna's unique advantages to provide a massive Mars colonization effort that may not be possible otherwise.
Luna has a lower gravity well than Mars or Earth and a high vacuum at surface level. Because of this there is a potential for a low cost electric launching of cargo to orbit that Mars and Earth will never be able to match. The cost was estimated as "pennies-per-pound" on the Mike Combs Space Settlement FAQ, "Why not build solar power stations on the moon?" http://space.mike-combs.com/spacesetl.htm#on_the_moon The actual cost per pound of such cargo launch will be heavily dependent upon the size of the market for launching cargo.
Luna has one face constantly turned toward earth so that a stationary antenna there could provide continuous real time communications with less than a three second round trip delay. This allows remote control industrial development without developing artificial computer intelligence to operate the industry 45 minutes without instructions on the latest developments. The axial tilt with respect to the ecliptic is 1.5 degrees. So, there is a potential in the course of development of Luna's resources to establish a set of solar power stations within 46 kilometers of either pole linked in a grid such that there is always one of them in sunlight. The ambient vacuum makes efficient thermal insulation as easy as packing fine grains sifted from the regolith.
Association with Luna can bring Mars into the market for building structures in Earth orbit before there is even a colony on Mars. Building an industry on Luna will be handicapped by the scarcity of volatiles on Luna but this can be remedied by establishing automated industry on Mars to distill the atmosphere, mine the permafrost at 50 degrees latitude and ship the products to orbit with one system and on to Luna with another. This is probably a simpler problem then building a complete industrial base for a colony, and it would be paid for out of returns from building structures in Earth orbit.

A counter-argument is that removing the task of industrial development to the moon mostly just switches the location of the problem. To get to the lunar surface from earth still costs within the same order of magnitude as to get to the surface of Mars (currently about $100,000/kg to the lunar surface vs. about $200,000/kg to the Martian surface). Indeed the industrial development problem on the moon is worse because it is scarce in volatiles which are crucial and voluminous inputs to industry. On earth where voluminous water is needed industry locates next to the water. Trying to get them out of Mars' gravity well all the way to the moon will probably not be economically viable. It is also easier to think about and solve the self-sufficiency problem on a location like Mars where volatiles and other industrial inputs are both readily available.

==Aspect of finance==
===Introduction===
Frontier settlements are capital investments from which investors expect some utility. Rarely small amounts are donated to altruistic causes (e.g. expanding humanity). Governments invest small sums in science and larger sums in national security. Most commonly, investors demand a profitable return from their investments. The sooner a colony becomes financially self-sufficient, the less investment is required, and thus the sooner an investment is likely to be made in the first place. Since radical elimination of all imports is probably impossible in the short run (see above), a colony is much more likely to be financed if it can generate exports that match or exceed the costs of imports. Since imports are costly, the exports must be valuable. They must also be affordably transportable to Earth: high value and low mass.

===Initial Capital Investments===

===Imports/Expenditures===

===Exports/Revenues===

===Net Present Value (NPV) of Investments===
Given a series of cash flows, for example annual expenditures and revenues over a period of thirty years, and an interest rate, the NPV function computes the net present value of these cash flows at the start of the series. NPV should exceed the initial capital investment (or alternatively, if capital investments are counted as cash flows, NPV should be positive).

In NPV analysis risk is represented by increasing the interest rate (the "risk premium"). If risk is not fairly evenly distributed over time NPV is less accurate and real options analysis is required for both for accuracy and for designing better strategies. However for most purposes NPV is fine, and it's also easier (you can use a spreadsheet, whereas real options analysis requires more sophisticated software).

For more information, see your spreadsheet's help pages for "NPV", "IRR", and related functions.

==Golden Mars scenario==
===Introduction===
We need concrete strategic and financial scenarios to work with. Since colonizing Mars is currently far from economically viable, we have to make some hypothetical, but plausible, assumptions, in order to develop scenarios that are financially and otherwise strategically viable. Here is one, the Golden Mars scenario:

(1) The same geological processes that formed gold ores on Earth once operated on Mars and have left there concentrations of gold on its surface not seen by humans since they first started finding the easy pieces on Earth c. 4000 BC. In particular, 1,000 kg of equipment on the Martian surface can find and ship to the Mars spaceport 10 kg of gold nuggets and flakes per year. Some technological goals to strive for: 10,000 kg of imported equipment (or 100,000 kg of native equipment, because these would be the bulkier parts) requires one person to operate and maintain it, and that person requires another 10,000 kg of equipment to support him. Some of aforementioned equipment should be made on Mars if that increases the economic return, which requires further labor, otherwise it should be imported.

(2) Because of the development of [[ISRU]]-based propellants, the costs of transport from Earth have been reduced by two orders of magnitude (to $2,000/kg) and the costs of transport from Mars surface to Earth surface are $1,000/kg.

(3) Plausible assumptions can be made about making things from Martian raw materials, as long as every part (use parts lists) and every material can be accounted for all the way back to through the supply chain (really supply tree, it keeps branching at every step) to Martian mines.

(4) The price of gold on Earth is about the same as today: $1,100/oz. * 1/28 oz/g * 1,000 g/kg = $39,000/kg. The market for gold production on Earth is about $100 billion/year, and the above-ground inventories are in the trillions of dollars, so you can produce at least $50 billion/year worth of gold before you start saturating the market and the price drops. (To be more precise about this, look up research on the supply/demand curve for gold, I'm sure economists must have researched this many times).

Can you design this Mars colony to be profitable, and thus attract investors?

===Make vs. Import Tradeoffs===

===Initial Capital Investments===

===Imports/Expenditures===

===Exports/Revenues===

===Net Present Value of Investments===

[[Category: Concepts]]
[[Category: Manned Missions]]
[[Category: Settlements]]

Smelting

2010-02-19T22:52:15Z

Frontiersman: category isru

Smelting converts a metal oxide ore to the metal. The output is typically a standard-sized metal bar. It requires substantial thermal energy, and often some chemical input such as carbon (e.g. coke on Earth, but coke is not readily available on Mars) or hydrogen. Mars has abundant iron oxides and substantial aluminum oxides, and it's possible (though by no means certain) that good quality ores of other metals (e.g. copper oxide) may be found. Considerable separation of the desired ore from other Martian soil constituents will generally be required before it is suitable as smelter input.

For aluminum smelting thermal power is insufficient; high amounts of electrical power are required.

If a suitable native source of carbon can be found, small-scale smelting of iron ore requires only other small-scale crafts for its equipment and raw materials ([[brick]]-making for the furnace), thus qualifies as a small-scale craft suitable for a frontier town (small and largely self-sufficient) economy. The bars produced by smelting are the raw materials of the [[blacksmith]]. Alternatively, [[meteoric iron]] may be available, in which case small-scale iron smelting is not required, only the melting of the iron and casting into bars.

[[Category: Technology]]
[[Category: Lo-tech]]
[[Category: Small-scale-tech]]
[[Category: ISRU]]

Meteoric iron

2010-02-19T22:51:16Z

Frontiersman:

Given Mars' proximity to the asteroid belt and the long geological life of materials on its surface compared to [[Earth]], '''meteoric iron''' will probably exist in significant abundance. The following questions on this probability need to be researched:

* How many [[asteroids]] cross Mars [[orbit]] vs. cross earth's orbit?
* Earth's larger cross-sectional area and gravity well draws a larger fraction of the nearby meteoroids to strike it than does Mars' gravity well. What is the numerical difference?
* Earth's atmosphere tends to stress stony meteoroids of less than about a hundred feet or so in diameter and more than some unknown diameter to the extent that they explode in the air and leave no trace but dust on the ground but slows 100 foot diameter iron [[meteoroid]]s so they have less of a tendency to vaporize on hitting the ground. To what extent does this enrich the number of intact iron meteoroids available to be found on the Earth's surface as compared to a world with a negligible atmosphere?
* What are the lifetimes of iron meteorites, given the differences in geology (e.g. the typically more active erosion processes on Earth than on most of Mars, as indicated by e.g. the large difference in uneroded [[crater]]s) and atmosphere (e.g. its [[oxygen]] which rusts exposed [[iron]]), on Mars and Earth respectively?
* Mars had [[water]] on its surface in the geologically recent past. What percentage of its surface was covered by water vs. the c. 2/3 of Earth covered by water? This water would have had an equilibrium level of dissolved [[carbon dioxide]] making a somewhat acid solution. To what extent would this have dissolved iron meteorites vs. rate that would occur in earth's lakes and oceans?
* At least one Mars [[rover]] found bits of meteoric iron -- how much does this effect the probability?

==See also==
*[[Iron]]
*[[Blacksmith]]
*[[Steel]]
*[[Meteors]]
*[[Meteorites]]

[[Category: Geology]]
[[Category: Metal]]
[[Category: ISRU]]

Meteoric iron

2010-02-19T22:50:49Z

Frontiersman: category isru

Sulfuric acid

2010-02-19T22:50:06Z

Frontiersman: categories

Sulfuric acid is the most important industrial acid. It is used for example in making [[steel]]. An important open issue is how to make sulfuric acid on Mars.
{{stub}}
[[Category: ISRU]]
[[Category: Chemistry]]

Sulfuric acid

2010-02-19T22:48:53Z

Frontiersman: category chemistry

Sulfuric acid is the most important industrial acid. It is used for example in making [[steel]]. An important open issue is how to make sulfuric acid on Mars.
{{stub}}
{{chemistry}}

Sulfuric acid

2010-02-19T22:47:33Z

Frontiersman: new article

Sulfuric acid is the most important industrial acid. It is used for example in making [[steel]]. An important open issue is how to make sulfuric acid on Mars.
{{stub}}

Nickel

2010-02-19T22:42:32Z

Frontiersman: found in meteoric iron

{{element
|float=right
|elementName=Nickel
|elementSymbol=Ni
|protons=28
|abundance=?% ([[Surface composition|Surface]])
}}

'''Nickel''' is a metal that is useful as a [[catalyst]] and in [[alloy|alloys]]. It is solid at room temperatures, and has a silver color. Nickel is naturally alloyed with iron in [[meteoric iron]].

==Uses==
===Catalyst in Chemical Reactions===
Nickel can be used as a catalyst in the following reactions:
* [[Reverse Water-Gas Shift Reaction]]
* [[Sabatier/Water Electrolysis Process]]

===[[Energy storage|Energy Storage]]===
Nickel is used in certain [[battery]] formulations.
The [[Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter]] uses two nickel-[[hydrogen]] batteries.
[[Mariner 8]], and [[Mariner 9]], and [[Mariner 10]], as well as both [[Voyager]] landers used nickel-[[cadmium]] batteries.
[[category:chemistry]]
[[Category:elements]]
[[Category:Metal]]

Meteoric iron

2010-02-19T22:38:06Z

Frontiersman: /* See also */

Meteorites

2010-02-19T22:37:16Z

Frontiersman: /* See also */

==Definition==

A '''meteorite''' is a body of space debris that enters the atmosphere of a planet and survives the friction with surrounding atmospheric gases to impact the surface energetically. Impact causes planetary [[crater|cratering]], ejecta and dust (forming a layer of [[regolith]] on planets with low geological activity such as Mars). This poses an obvious risk to life on the surface of [[Earth]], but due to the tenuous atmosphere of [[Mars]], smaller debris have the greater chance to impact the Martian surface. Therefore, [[self-healing puncture protection]] for [[space suit]]s and [[house]]s should be installed.

==Observations of Meteorite Impacts on Mars==

[[Image:Moc_impact.jpg|thumb|right|300px|[[Mars Global Surveyor]] images of the same site in 1999 and 2006 - Impact from meteorite is obvious.]]

On January 9, 2006 the [[Mars Global Surveyor]] MOC science operations team came to the realization that their camera (used primarily to map the Martian surface) may be able to locate and characterize fresh impact craters on the surface of Mars. Such a survey would provide useful information about the current meteorite impact rate. This survey would be the first of its kind ever carried out on a Solar System body (including the Earth-Moon system) due to the unprecedented number of high resolution cameras inserted into Mars orbit.<ref>[http://www.astroengine.net/article.php?id_art=36 Full article on Mars hazards.]</ref>

In results gathered on January 6, 2006, the MOC had acquired a new feature on the Martian surface in [[Arabia Terra]] in one of its images. The feature was circular and very dark. At the time, the camera was capturing images at a resolution of 240 meters/pixel, so there were some ambiguities as to what the blurred feature was. The team began exploring the possible scenarios, but after proving shadows of the two moons, [[Phobos]] and [[Deimos]] were not to blame, they quickly realized that something in the area was new when compared with images taken by [[Mariner 9]] (in 1971) through to the [[Mars Express]] mission (in 2003). There was still the possibility that the dark circular object may have been caused by the removal of [[sand]] and [[dust storms|dust]] due to high winds in the region so better observations had to be carried out.

To increase the resolution in the images, a technique known as Roll-Only Targeted Observation (ROTO) was employed. This massively improved the images for analysis, the new resolution registered at 1.5 meters/pixel allowing the team to see the main impact crater and several smaller craters arcing away from the large dark spot. Another observational technique – compensated Pitch and Roll Observation (cPROTO) – was used to improve the images further until the evidence was indisputable. A fresh impact crater had been discovered.

[[Mars Odyssey]]'s THEMIS instrument and [[Mars Express]]' High Resolution Camera (HRSC) were able to provide supplementary observations of the area to constrain the impact date to some time between November 12, 2004 and January 6, 2006. Since this first discovery in January 6, 2006, another 20 new impact craters have been discovered by the MOC.

==Open issues==
*What is the size and frequency of meteorites on Mars?
*What is the probability for a [[human]] body to be hit by a meteorite on Mars in an hour?

==See also==
*[[Meteors]]
*[[Meteoric iron]]

==References==
<references/>

{{SettlementIndex}}

[[category:Hazards]]

Iron

2010-02-18T21:38:27Z

Frontiersman: smelting and meteoric iron

{{element
|float=right
|elementName=Iron
|elementSymbol=Fe
|protons=26
|abundance=?% ([[surface composition|surface]])
}}

'''Iron''' (''periodic table symbol:'' Fe26) in the form of iron oxide gives [[Mars]] its characteristic red color. Iron can be extracted from iron oxide by [[smelting]] or may be found as [[meteoric iron]]. Iron is a basic constituent of a very wide variety of structures and machines.

== See also ==
[[Blacksmith]]

[[Steel]]

[[category:geology]]
[[category:metal]]
[[category:recyclable material]]
[[Category:Elements]]

{{stub}}

Meteoric iron

2010-02-18T21:33:08Z

Frontiersman: See also

Given Mars' proximity to the asteroid belt and the long geological life of materials on its surface compared to [[Earth]], '''meteoric iron''' will probably exist in significant abundance. The following questions on this probability need to be researched:

* How many [[asteroids]] cross Mars [[orbit]] vs. cross earth's orbit?
* Earth's larger cross-sectional area and gravity well draws a larger fraction of the nearby meteoroids to strike it than does Mars' gravity well. What is the numerical difference?
* Earth's atmosphere tends to stress stony meteoroids of less than about a hundred feet or so in diameter and more than some unknown diameter to the extent that they explode in the air and leave no trace but dust on the ground but slows 100 foot diameter iron [[meteoroid]]s so they have less of a tendency to vaporize on hitting the ground. To what extent does this enrich the number of intact iron meteoroids available to be found on the Earth's surface as compared to a world with a negligible atmosphere?
* What are the lifetimes of iron meteorites, given the differences in geology (e.g. the typically more active erosion processes on Earth than on most of Mars, as indicated by e.g. the large difference in uneroded [[crater]]s) and atmosphere (e.g. its [[oxygen]] which rusts exposed [[iron]]), on Mars and Earth respectively?
* Mars had [[water]] on its surface in the geologically recent past. What percentage of its surface was covered by water vs. the c. 2/3 of Earth covered by water? This water would have had an equilibrium level of dissolved [[carbon dioxide]] making a somewhat acid solution. To what extent would this have dissolved iron meteorites vs. rate that would occur in earth's lakes and oceans?
* At least one Mars [[rover]] found bits of meteoric iron -- how much does this effect the probability?

==See also==
[[Iron]]

[[Blacksmith]]

[[Steel]]

[[Category: Geology]]
[[Category: Metal]]

Iron

2010-02-18T21:30:42Z

Frontiersman: /* See also */

{{element
|float=right
|elementName=Iron
|elementSymbol=Fe
|protons=26
|abundance=?% ([[surface composition|surface]])
}}

'''Iron''' (''periodic table symbol:'' Fe26) is the chemical element that gives [[Mars]] it's characteristic red color.

== See also ==
[[Blacksmith]]

[[Meteoric iron]]

[[Steel]]

[[category:geology]]
[[category:metal]]
[[category:recyclable material]]
[[Category:Elements]]

{{stub}}

Iron

2010-02-18T21:29:43Z

Frontiersman: See also

{{element
|float=right
|elementName=Iron
|elementSymbol=Fe
|protons=26
|abundance=?% ([[surface composition|surface]])
}}

'''Iron''' (''periodic table symbol:'' Fe26) is the chemical element that gives [[Mars]] it's characteristic red color.

== See also ==
[[Blacksmith]]
[[Meteoric iron]]
[[Steel]]

[[category:geology]]
[[category:metal]]
[[category:recyclable material]]
[[Category:Elements]]

{{stub}}

Aluminum

2010-02-18T08:37:41Z

Frontiersman:

Aluminum oxides are abundant on Mars as on Earth. Traditionally aluminum requires high electric power to reduce it from its oxides using electrolysis. Work has been going on for several decades on the carbothermic process, which uses carbon and just thermal power, to try to make it as economical on Earth as electrolytic reduction.<ref name=Genuth>Green, ed., 2007, ''Aluminum Recycling and Processing'', pp. 198-9 [http://books.google.com/books?id=t-Jg-i0XlpcC&pg=PA198&dq=carbothermic+aluminum+metal+reduction&num=100#v=onepage&q=carbothermic%20aluminum%20metal%20reduction&f=true] </ref> If thermal power is cheaper than electric power on Mars relative to Earth, due for example to being more suitable for an import-minimizing economy, the carbothermic process will be relatively more attractive.

==References==
<references/>

[[Category: Geology]]
[[Category: Metal]]

Aluminum

2010-02-18T08:33:31Z

Frontiersman: categories

Aluminum oxides are abundant on Mars as on Earth. Traditionally aluminum requires high electric power to reduce it from its oxides using electrolysis. Work has been going on for several decades on the carbothermic process, which uses carbon and just thermal power, to make it as economical on Earth as electrolytic reduction.<ref name=Genuth>Green, ed., 2007, ''Aluminum Recycling and Processing'', pp. 198-9 [http://books.google.com/books?id=t-Jg-i0XlpcC&pg=PA198&dq=carbothermic+aluminum+metal+reduction&num=100#v=onepage&q=carbothermic%20aluminum%20metal%20reduction&f=true] </ref> If thermal power is cheaper than electric power on Mars relative to Earth, due for example to being more suitable for an import-minimizing economy, the carbothermic process will be relatively more attractive.

==References==
<references/>

[[Category: Geology]]
[[Category: Metal]]

Aluminum

2010-02-18T08:31:23Z

Frontiersman: new page

Aluminum oxides are abundant on Mars as on Earth. Traditionally aluminum requires high electric power to reduce it from its oxides using electrolysis. Work has been going on for several decades on the carbothermic process, which uses carbon and just thermal power, to make it as economical on Earth as electrolytic reduction.<ref name=Genuth>Green, ed., 2007, ''Aluminum Recycling and Processing'', pp. 198-9 [http://books.google.com/books?id=t-Jg-i0XlpcC&pg=PA198&dq=carbothermic+aluminum+metal+reduction&num=100#v=onepage&q=carbothermic%20aluminum%20metal%20reduction&f=true] </ref> If thermal power is cheaper than electric power on Mars relative to Earth, due for example to being more suitable for an import-minimizing economy, the carbothermic process will be relatively more attractive.

==References==
<references/>

Nuclear brick

2010-02-18T08:11:04Z

Frontiersman: references, try again

A nuclear brick is a small RTG or nuclear reactor built to the form-factor of a [[brick]] and controlled by a wireless network. They are to power brick furnaces and heaters for [[smelting]], casting, [[glass]] melting and curing, heating of habitats and greenhouses, heating of chemicals, and other thermal processes. A plutonium-powered RTG could last several years but has a much lower specific power than an americium-242-powered nuclear reactor. A 1.6 kg americium core can produce 70 kW of thermal power but this core must be replaced every 80 days of operation. Americium-242 exists on Earth as a byproduct of normal nuclear reactors, but might be produced by a small fast reactor on Mars from native americium-241 if the latter can be found and mined.<ref name=Genuth>Genuth, Iddo, 2006, ''Americium Power Source'', TFOT The Future of Things. [http://thefutureofthings.com/articles.php?itemId=26/64/] </ref>

==References==
<references/>

Nuclear brick

2010-02-18T08:08:49Z

Frontiersman: references

Smelting

2010-02-18T07:58:35Z

Frontiersman: link

Steel

2010-02-18T07:57:47Z

Frontiersman: /* Open issues */

'''Steel''' is an alloy of [[iron]]. It is a material with high strengh that is widely used on Earth for construction. It is technologically well known.

Steel consists mainly of [[iron]] and [[carbon]], and can be produced on [[Mars]] from [[local resources]]. The carbon part can be from 0,02% to 2,06%. Other additives can be [[manganese]], [[chrome]], [[vanadium]], [[molybdenum]] and [[tungsten]]. The percentage of the parts decide upon the properties of the steel. The tensile strength varies from 250 MPa to more than 2000 MPa. It can be [[recycling|recycled]] easily by melting and forging for new parts.

The low quantity of [[oxygen]] in the martian atmosphere and the absence of liquid [[water]] means that exposed steel may be less prone to rust.

==Use cases==

Steel can be made with a deliberate set of properties, making is usable for
* a great variety of housings and construction beams
* tools with low abrasion properties
* steel cable with high tensile strength

==See also==
[[Blacksmith]]

==Open issues==

* How can steel be made from local Martian resources? Probably, this is not done in a conventional furnace with coke, and hence the steel plant does not need to remove the carbon excess from the raw iron. However, [[smelting]] iron from iron ore without carbon is very difficult. [[Meteoric iron]] may be a good raw material for steel or wrought iron. It can be used directly: it does not require smelting.

[[Category:Metal]]
[[Category:Technology]]

Steel

2010-02-18T07:56:26Z

Frontiersman: /* Open issues */

'''Steel''' is an alloy of [[iron]]. It is a material with high strengh that is widely used on Earth for construction. It is technologically well known.

Steel consists mainly of [[iron]] and [[carbon]], and can be produced on [[Mars]] from [[local resources]]. The carbon part can be from 0,02% to 2,06%. Other additives can be [[manganese]], [[chrome]], [[vanadium]], [[molybdenum]] and [[tungsten]]. The percentage of the parts decide upon the properties of the steel. The tensile strength varies from 250 MPa to more than 2000 MPa. It can be [[recycling|recycled]] easily by melting and forging for new parts.

The low quantity of [[oxygen]] in the martian atmosphere and the absence of liquid [[water]] means that exposed steel may be less prone to rust.

==Use cases==

Steel can be made with a deliberate set of properties, making is usable for
* a great variety of housings and construction beams
* tools with low abrasion properties
* steel cable with high tensile strength

==See also==
[[Blacksmith]]

==Open issues==

* How can steel be made from local Martian resources? Probably, this is not done in a conventional furnace with coke, and hence the steel plant does not need to remove the carbon excess from the raw iron. However, smelting without carbon is very difficult. [[Meteoric iron]] may be a good raw material for steel or wrought iron. It can be used directly: it does not require smelting.

[[Category:Metal]]
[[Category:Technology]]

Meteoric iron

2010-02-18T07:51:42Z

Frontiersman: how much

Talk:Hi-tech versus lo-tech

2010-02-18T07:38:00Z

Frontiersman: /* New Category */

Solar panels are placed in the high-tech category, and wind turbines are placed in the low-tech catagory. However, imagine having to maintain wind turbines on Mars? They will get clogged up with dust, abrasion will be a problem, etc. And, genetically engineered plants for use in greenhouses would be brought from Earth beforehand, unless greenpeace stops them. [[User:T.Neo|T.Neo]] 10:12, 30 June 2008 (UTC)
:Hi T.Neo, the difference between high-tech and lo-tech becomes clearer when you look at the tools and machinery for production and maintenance. To produce solar panels you need a complicated machinery including high-temperature doping ovens with rare minerals and a set of high-sophisticated electronic gadgets. This is what I refer to as high-tech, because we might not be able to reproduce such gadgets. On the other hand you can produce a wind turbine simply by hand-made parts of ordinary materials, with no complicated machinery required. This is what I refer to as lo-tech. Sure, wind turbines have some shortcomings, as you say. There is always a price to pay. After all the question is: How can we survive on Mars, with solar panels or with wind turbines. Your mentioning of the shortcomings of wind turbines is very helpful to find the answer, and that's why I thank you for the discussion. Please add the shortcomings to the [[wind turbine]] article.
::The main issue here is not so much solar vs. wind, rather that it is electrical parts themselves that are "high-tech" in terms of difficulty in manufacturing from Mars native materials and the specialized skills needed to both manufacture and maintain them. Traditional parts, with their elaborate coils and made out of a variety of fine purified materials, as well as silicon-based parts both require very elaborate industrial infrastructures that won't exist for a very long time on Mars. I'm afraid it is electricity generally that will have to go in the "high-tech" category. Thermal power using crude native engines will be far cheaper than electricity. Steams engines, for example, will be much easier to make from native materials than electrical engines. [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 23:30, 7 February 2010 (UTC)

:Compared with ''legacy vegetables'' the new developed ''genetically engineered plants'' may not be stable in the long run. Genetic alteration will be necessary after a while, maybe unexpectedly. I would use them only if I have the ability to do corrections. Same with computer software. If a software bug shows up in a vital system (e.g. Y2K), I would want someone who can fix it. DNA is a kind of software.
:-- [[User:Rfc|Rfc]] 15:11, 30 June 2008 (UTC)

We don't have the ability to edit the DNA "software". Genetic modification is either done by selective breeding or importing genetic material from other organisms. Selective breeding takes effect only in the long term. Any genetically modified crops brought to Mars will have been modified previously on Earth. Thing is, GM crops are an attractive possibility, to bump up production, survive in harsh conditions, etc. [[User:T.Neo|T.Neo]] 14:23, 10 July 2008 (UTC)
:The GM crops may not be stable in the long run. Too little is known about the interaction of the species in a biosphere. I think the ongoing natural evolution catches up with any artificial genetic modification after a while, reducing the benefit of GM crops. Even short term effects are possible, e.g. side effect in combination with drifting population of microbes. Under Martian conditions the effect is even less predictable.

:What we know is that legacy vegetable is stable in a terrestrial environment. What we do not know is how stable legacy vegetable is in a Martian environment. What we do not know is how stable GM crops is in a terrestrial environment. The two things combined means: We do not know for a higher degree how stable GM crops is in a Martian environment.

:In my opinion, reliable GM crops specialized for a Martian colony are not within our reach. Therefore, I think the usage of GM crops on Mars is too dangerous if the Martian settlers do not have the industry behind it under their own control.
:-- [[User:Rfc|Rfc]] 12:19, 13 July 2008 (UTC)

I see your point, I dont think it would be very easy to maintain a genetic laboratory on Mars. [[User:T.Neo|T.Neo]] 13:37, 13 July 2008 (UTC)

== New Category ==
We need a new category, as we can go lower-tech than the "low-tech" category. I'm referring to the technology of a self-sufficient frontier village: brick-making, small-scale smelting, blacksmithing, glass-blowing, etc. These have a great advantage in not requiring our massive and highly specialized industrial infrastructure to be hauled from earth (basically an impossible task). [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 22:33, 7 February 2010 (UTC)
:That's true. I find the idea promising. How about [[:category:small-scale-tech]]? -- [[User:Rfc|Rfc]] 18:42, 8 February 2010 (UTC)
::I have no objection to another category of low tech industry for a Mars colony, but I do not think electricity takes much more complicated technology than a steam engine. If colonists can make a steam engine they can hook it to an electric generator. The generators themselves could have parts based upon complicated technology, but it is not necessary. Educational electric generator kits for elementary school children are commercially available. If colonists can produce iron and copper, they can produce electricity.
::People will need both complex and simple technologies. It would be nice to have a new world with fertile soil and breathable air, but Mars is not that. On Mars people will get air and fertile soil only by manufacturing them. Recycling will be artificial rather than by action of a natural biosphere. The large amount of work per person will require considerable automated production. The proper route to independence for Mars is through interdependence. By being a part of an economy that includes Earth, Mars will be able to grow extensive industry. Once established, this industry will be available to be diverted to independent survival in case Earth is made temporarily uninhabitable by a massive comet collision or some other catastrophe. As for bringing complex technology to Mars, it is not impossible just as bringing a potato plant to Europe was not impossible in the sixteenth century. People can not yet package the seed for their industrial economy quite as compactly as God packaged the very complex workings of the potato and other living things into seeds, but people are working on it. Like the plans for massive solar power plants to be built out of lunar materials, plans can be developed for massive colonization ships moving in repeated transfers between Earth and Mars without stopping. Only the cargo and passengers start and stop. Sending a complete industrial economy to Mars is certainly possible. It just takes a long time for the industry to develop from a seed on Luna to make it possible. A man can only wait few years for plans to develop to his benefit, but humanity can wait fifty years handily, and I think it must wait. I see no fast plans that will result in a colony.--[[User:Farred|Farred]] 23:49, 10 February 2010 (UTC)
:::I'd love to believe this, but you're writing at a pretty abstract level here. Let's get concrete: by what specific processes would you go from native Martian ores and atmospheric molecules to this [http://www.scribd.com/doc/487916/Brushless-Alternator-BLD2300-parts-list] parts list for an electric alternator? [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 23:32, 11 February 2010 (UTC)
:I am afraid, the interplanetary transport is the most expensive part of building a Martian colony. And the first part, that is the transport from Earth's surface to Earth's orbit, is the big part of it. Considering the current understanding of physics, the transport can hardly be made much cheaper, unless we want to indulge in science fiction. Certainly, we have to employ newest scientific research results, helping us to create efficient machinery. I don't think a steam engine is better than an electric motor. Generally, older technology is not necessarily better than newer and vice versa. It always depends on the maintenance effort and on the necessary resources. Shipping costs are probable lower for small scale machines than large scale machines, and the financial frame will always be tight. The perfect, but unrealistic, way to colonize Mars is sending a one-kilogram probe with a handful of nanobots, preparing the whole colony, before sending a second one-kilogram probe with a handful of frozen fertilized human eggs, etc. This science fiction scenario is, of course, not realistic, but might serve as a guiding thought. -- [[User:Rfc|Rfc]] 14:41, 13 February 2010 (UTC)
::Rfc, I largely agree, but we have plenty to discuss. Older is not automatically better, but technology such as blacksmithing, brick-making, and so on that were part of the largely self-sufficient manor or frontier village have a demonstrated history of working in a small economy that modern technology does not. They were used for example in early American settlements to great success. A great thought experiment, BTW, is to imagine that a new lifeless island was deposited by a volcano in the middle of the Pacific, and we and 100 of our pals have the job of settling it. Two rules are (1) we get to haul 10 cargo containers worth of stuff there, and (2) after that it is completely cut off. No second chances -- if we bring an industry and it doesn't work out, we die. What could we bring that we know would work, because it's been historically demonstrated to work? We'd bring the small frontier village crafts. We can also, unlike the fanciful nanobot, actually trace in detail the relationships between these industries and convince ourselves that it is self-sufficient: that each relies only on the inputs of the other. We can't do that for any modern technology. or for fanciful nanobots, and it's a crucial exercise to go through. If you trace back the parts list and all the processes in the necessary detail you drive yourself crazy with the unfathomable complexity. But you've got to try it to convince yourself that this is true. Then you go back and do it for the frontier town to get a feel for what technology for a self-sufficient economy is like.
::My steam engine argument is more intuitive and might be wrong. I intuit that it would be easier to build a steam engine than an electric motor because the parts could be made, I suspect, out of meteoric iron by a blacksmith, metal caster, and a CNC mill and boring machine. So it's not far removed from that self-sufficient economy. The variety of materials and means of manufacture that go into a reasonable electric motor (for the magnets, coils, brushes, insulating material, and so on) seems far greater to me. For another example, see the parts list for the alternator above. But I admit this is a fairly intuitive argument and we need to break out the parts lists in detail and think about each process that goes from each part all the way back to the mine (does geology convince us that good copper can be found on Mars?) in order to resolve our debate. [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 08:15, 14 February 2010 (UTC)
::I should add that there seems to be a slight difference between our assumptions: yours sounds like a complete cutoff of a larger colony, and mine is a cutoff of 99% of normal input mass but in a smaller colony such as it might look near its inception: a few hundred people, with only 100 tops working on anything but agriculture and export industries. So I only have 100 workers I can employ to do every job in my 99% self-sufficient economy. These assumptions come from a goal of economically starting and operating a colony. So I'm still importing sensors, chips, small actuators, very small wires, and similar, thus my CNC machine and boring machine that is made out of 99% native mass and 1% imported electronics. Getting rid of that last 1% is a very hard job, so I'm "cheating" by 1% to make it more feasible. Basically I have tiny electronics operating very large thermal machines made out of native materials. I also admire the more challenging assumption of complete cutoff, and I was thrilled to see your designs substituting fluid circuits for electronic circuits. [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 08:49, 14 February 2010 (UTC)
:::Marspedia seemed to be down when I tried to connect on the 13th. Was there a problem?
:::When I wrote that sending a complete industrial economy to Mars is possible, I meant physically possible. The economic feasibility still remains to be shown. It would be physically possible to lower launch cost from Earth to orbit by constructing an orbiting spaceport that can donate orbital momentum to space craft going to orbit from Earth in a way similar to an airplane matching velocity with Earth by landing on a runway. Operating an electromagnetic catcher at an orbiting spaceport catching craft from Luna with an excess velocity and craft form Earth with insufficient velocity can generate electricity and maintain orbital momentum at the same time. I do not know if that should be called science fiction, but it could conceivably be ready in fifty years.
:::In pointing out the necessity of manufacturing air and soil on Mars and artificially controlling the recycling process; I intended to show that the technologies that were self sufficient on Earth would not necessarily be up to the level of self sufficiency on Mars. The conditions are different. People, an integral part of the low tech scheme, are much harder to support on Mars than on Earth.
:::I do not know if people will find high grade copper ore on Mars, but if they do not it will probably be necessary to go to the trouble of using low grade deposits of copper or smelting aluminum to use as an electrical conductor. People might be able to get by on an initial investment from Earth of electrical generating capacity for quite a while by shifting those things that can be shifted from electrical power to hydraulic, pneumatic, or belt drive power.
:::I doubt that even with great effort I could specify every task necessary to go from raw Martian recources to a dynamo, much less a brushless alternator. It would be as difficult for me to specify the tasks necessary to produce a steam engine there. That proves nothing about the relative merits of the devices. The total technical skills of those contributing to this discussion so far are insufficient for coming to any final conclusions about what would be an economic industrial infrastructure on Mars.
:::Where is the substitution of fluidic for electric circuits referred to?--[[User:Farred|Farred]] 23:25, 14 February 2010 (UTC)
::::I meant to say [[pneumatic]] circuits. Since there are plenty of smart people working on launch costs, but not very many in our global economy working on self-sufficient technology, it makes more sense to me to assume that launch costs will continue to make only slow progress and to focus on autonomy instead. In my judgment breakthroughs leading to economical space colonies are more likely in substituting self-sufficient technology for global economy technology than in joining the big crowd that's been trying for decades without much success to lower launch costs. And for me self-sufficient technology is a fun challenge with far better opportunity to make original contributions that could make a difference in the long run. [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 23:49, 14 February 2010 (UTC)
::::Your comments on agriculture are well-taken. Agriculture requires a much higher industrial base on Mars than on Earth frontiers. Polynesians could have a hundred people working fields and running pigs on a completely self-sufficient island without any industry or even any metal-work. Mars is very different. That's why so far I've abstracted away from agriculture and just focused on how to get a self-sufficient industry, because without self-sufficient industry there is no self-sufficient agriculture. Nevertheless I do have some thoughts about Martian agriculture. First, complete recycling is too labor intensive and I don't want to rely on it. Nitrogen for fertilizer and air is needed, so some chemical plants are needed. Second, big pressure vessels with windows or light pipes are needed for the agriculture and habitats. (Electric lights like all other large-scale electricity are out in small-scale-tech). So small-scale-tech will, ironically, physically be large-scale when it comes to most equipment and structures. The "small scale" refers to the number of workers needed in the economy, not to the size of the machines. With the 1/3 gravity people will be able to carry around equipment that is three times as large and build structures that hold three times the weight as on Earth. Given our challenges we need to take advantage of every advantage we've got. Also, the raw materials (meteoric iron, sand, clay, and several atmospheric constituents) are copiously available. The assumption I'm making that may be most disputable is a reasonable cost source of thermal energy: either from mirrors or from nuclear bricks. BTW there are ways of splitting water with just thermal energy, but no way AFAIK of smelting aluminum. [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 00:28, 15 February 2010 (UTC)
Perhaps the winning of aluminum metal from ore is not generally referred to as smelting. I know a difficult electro-chemical process is generally used, but there may be an all thermal process available. It is referred to in the Wikipedia article on aluminum. Al2O3 is reacted with Carbon at high temperature to form Al4C3 and this is heated to 1900-2000 degrees centigrade to yield the metal.--[[User:Farred|Farred]]
01:57, 15 February 2010 (UTC)
:That's a great find. The fact that they are still debugging the process here suggests that it might be rather complicated or finicky. But if that turns out not to be a big problem or can be overcome, the ability to make a aluminum without hauling up heavy electric power equipment would be a huge plus. [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 18:39, 17 February 2010 (UTC)
Hi, both of you have really great ideas, and the discussion turns out to be very effective. I have tried to put some of the thoughts into the article [[Colonization strategy]]. May be we can collect more aspects with their pros and cons and insert them in our article pages to preserve the valuable thoughts. Whatever idea we find important. As far as I understand Marspedia, we collect '''all''' ideas, even if they exclude each other. -- [[User:Rfc|Rfc]] 20:58, 17 February 2010 (UTC)
:That's a great page, thanks! I hope you like my further edits. Feel free to edit some more. [[User:Frontiersman|Frontiersman]] 07:37, 18 February 2010 (UTC)

Settlement Strategies

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Frontiersman: /* Strategy 2: Mass transport of ready-to-use technology */

Settlement Strategies

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Frontiersman: /* Exports */

Settlement Strategies

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Frontiersman: /* Imports */

Settlement Strategies

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Frontiersman: /* Exports */

Settlement Strategies

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Frontiersman: /* Imports */

Settlement Strategies

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Frontiersman: /* Net Present Value (NPV) of Investments */