Semi-autonomous colony - Revision history

Michel Lamontagne: /* What if support from Earth stops? */

2023-11-07T14:07:43Z

What if support from Earth stops?

← Older revision		Revision as of 15:07, 7 November 2023
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	==What if support from Earth stops?==		==What if support from Earth stops?==

	If the shipments were to stop, the colony might be able to sustain itself for some time, based upon the lo-tech equipment. Some people might then choose to return to Earth if [[space access]] was possible. However, without access to Earth, the colony ~~might~~ simply fail. The minimum size of a viable settlement is unknown, but it might be quite large.		If the shipments were to stop, the colony might be able to sustain itself for some time, based upon the lo-tech equipment. Some people might then choose to return to Earth if [[space access]] was possible. However, without access to Earth, the colony will simply fail, eventually. The minimum size of a viable settlement is unknown, but it might be quite large.

	As an alternative to a low tech society, a reasonable precaution would be for the settlement to stock a strategic amount of supplies of essential elements or equipment. The stockpile should be sufficient for the settlement to have the time required to develop local sources for the supplies. For example, digging for cobalt on Mars might be uneconomical compared to shipping from Earth. But if shipping from Earth stops, the settlement would develop local mines, whatever the cost, as they would become essential. This way a higher technology settlement could be maintained.		As an alternative to a low tech society, a reasonable precaution would be for the settlement to stock a strategic amount of supplies of essential elements or equipment. The stockpile should be sufficient for the settlement to have the time required to develop local sources for the supplies. For example, digging for cobalt on Mars might be uneconomical compared to shipping from Earth. But if shipping from Earth stops, the settlement would develop local mines, whatever the cost, as they would become essential. This way a higher technology settlement could be maintained.

Michel Lamontagne: /* What if support from Earth stops? */

2023-05-23T18:33:36Z

What if support from Earth stops?

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:33, 23 May 2023
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	==What if support from Earth stops?==		==What if support from Earth stops?==

	~~However, if~~ the shipments were to stop, the colony might be able to sustain itself for ~~the long run~~, based upon the lo-tech equipment. Some people ~~may~~ then choose to return to Earth if [[space access]] is ~~possible~~.		If the shipments were to stop, the colony might be able to sustain itself for some time, based upon the lo-tech equipment. Some people might then choose to return to Earth if [[space access]] was possible. However, without access to Earth, the colony might simply fail. The minimum size of a viable settlement is unknown, but it might be quite large.

	As an alternative to a low tech society, a reasonable precaution would be for the settlement to stock a strategic amount of supplies of essential elements or equipment. The stockpile should be sufficient for the settlement to have the time required to develop local sources for the supplies. For example, digging for cobalt on Mars might be uneconomical compared to shipping from Earth. But if shipping from Earth stops, the settlement would develop local mines, whatever the cost, as they would become essential. This way a higher technology settlement could be maintained.		As an alternative to a low tech society, a reasonable precaution would be for the settlement to stock a strategic amount of supplies of essential elements or equipment. The stockpile should be sufficient for the settlement to have the time required to develop local sources for the supplies. For example, digging for cobalt on Mars might be uneconomical compared to shipping from Earth. But if shipping from Earth stops, the settlement would develop local mines, whatever the cost, as they would become essential. This way a higher technology settlement could be maintained.

Michel Lamontagne: /* Minimum viable population */

2022-11-27T21:13:45Z

Minimum viable population

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:13, 27 November 2022
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	What is the minimum population on Mars that can maintain a high enough technology to live indefinitely with only local resources?		What is the minimum population on Mars that can maintain a high enough technology to live indefinitely with only local resources?
	This is highly dependent on the available technology, however some studies have been made in the similar case of generation ships for Interstellar travel and others have proposed values.		This is highly dependent on the available technology, however some studies have been made in the similar case of generation ships for Interstellar travel and others have proposed values.
			As a society becomes more and more technological, the required population get higher and higher. However, eventually technology reaches the point it becomes capable of self replication (Frietas and others). At that point the required population falls to zero, since humans are no longer required. Semi autonomous technological replication provides numbers anywhere in between the huge values of modern society and zero.

	*'''Genetically''', studies have shown that starting with sufficient diversity, the minimum viable genetic population is about one hundred individuals https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03856		*'''Genetically''', studies have shown that starting with sufficient diversity, the minimum viable genetic population is about one hundred individuals https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03856
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	*'''Aurora, Kim Stankey Robinson''' Robinson, for his novel, Robinson showed a population of about 10 000 failing at maintaining a viable technological society and having to return to Earth.		*'''Aurora, Kim Stankey Robinson''' Robinson, for his novel, Robinson showed a population of about 10 000 failing at maintaining a viable technological society and having to return to Earth.
	*'''Elon Musk''' has proposed a target of one million people for a self sustaining civilisation.		*'''Elon Musk''' has proposed a target of one million people for a self sustaining civilisation.
	*'''~~Mchael~~ Cain ''' has proposed three to five million people as a minimum number.<ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref>		*'''Michael Cain ''' has proposed three to five million people as a minimum number.<ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref>
	Other expect the required population to be several tens if not hundreds of millions. <ref>https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/70880/minimum-population-for-a-high-tech-society</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>		Other expect the required population to be several tens if not hundreds of millions. <ref>https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/70880/minimum-population-for-a-high-tech-society</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>

Michel Lamontagne: /* Minimum viable population */

2022-11-27T21:08:27Z

Minimum viable population

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:08, 27 November 2022
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	*'''Aurora, Kim Stankey Robinson''' Robinson, for his novel, Robinson showed a population of about 10 000 failing at maintaining a viable technological society and having to return to Earth.		*'''Aurora, Kim Stankey Robinson''' Robinson, for his novel, Robinson showed a population of about 10 000 failing at maintaining a viable technological society and having to return to Earth.
	*'''Elon Musk''' has proposed a target of one million people for a self sustaining civilisation.		*'''Elon Musk''' has proposed a target of one million people for a self sustaining civilisation.
	*'''Mchael Cain ''' has proposed three to five million people as a minimum number.<ref>~~https~~://~~worldbuilding~~.~~stackexchange~~.com/~~questions~~/~~70880~~/minimum-population-~~for~~-a-high-tech~~-society~~</ref><ref>~~http~~://~~randompolicy~~.~~blogspot~~.com/~~2013~~/01/minimum-population-to-~~support~~-high-tech~~.html~~</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>		*'''Mchael Cain ''' has proposed three to five million people as a minimum number.<ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref>
			Other expect the required population to be several tens if not hundreds of millions. <ref>https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/70880/minimum-population-for-a-high-tech-society</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>

	==References==		==References==

	[[Category:Settlement Plans]]		[[Category:Settlement Plans]]

Michel Lamontagne: /* Minimum viable population */

2022-11-27T21:06:54Z

Minimum viable population

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:06, 27 November 2022
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	*'''Aurora, Kim Stankey Robinson''' Robinson, for his novel, Robinson showed a population of about 10 000 failing at maintaining a viable technological society and having to return to Earth.		*'''Aurora, Kim Stankey Robinson''' Robinson, for his novel, Robinson showed a population of about 10 000 failing at maintaining a viable technological society and having to return to Earth.
	*'''Elon Musk''' has proposed a target of one million people for a self sustaining civilisation.		*'''Elon Musk''' has proposed a target of one million people for a self sustaining civilisation.
	*'''~~xxx~~''' has proposed ~~several~~ million people~~. (The~~ minimum number ~~might be 50 million people? 500 million people?) If a Martian colony was cut off from Earth, and had to survive indefinitely with a low population, it would likely not survive~~.<ref>https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/70880/minimum-population-for-a-high-tech-society</ref><ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>		*'''Mchael Cain ''' has proposed three to five million people as a minimum number.<ref>https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/70880/minimum-population-for-a-high-tech-society</ref><ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>

	==References==		==References==

	[[Category:Settlement Plans]]		[[Category:Settlement Plans]]

Michel Lamontagne: /* Minimum viable population */

2022-11-27T21:03:35Z

Minimum viable population

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:03, 27 November 2022
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	What is the minimum population on Mars that can maintain a high enough technology to live indefinitely with only local resources?		What is the minimum population on Mars that can maintain a high enough technology to live indefinitely with only local resources?
	This is highly dependent on the available technology, however some studies have been made in the similar case of generation ships for Interstellar travel ~~(references)~~.		This is highly dependent on the available technology, however some studies have been made in the similar case of generation ships for Interstellar travel and others have proposed values.

	*'''Genetically''', studies have shown that starting with sufficient diversity, the minimum viable genetic population is about one hundred individuals https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03856		*'''Genetically''', studies have shown that starting with sufficient diversity, the minimum viable genetic population is about one hundred individuals https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03856

Michel Lamontagne: /* Minimum viable population */

2022-11-27T21:02:50Z

Minimum viable population

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:02, 27 November 2022
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	What is the minimum population on Mars that can maintain a high enough technology to live indefinitely with only local resources?		What is the minimum population on Mars that can maintain a high enough technology to live indefinitely with only local resources?
	This is highly dependent on the available technology, however some studies have been made in the similar case of generation ships for Interstellar travel (references).		This is highly dependent on the available technology, however some studies have been made in the similar case of generation ships for Interstellar travel (references).
	*'''Genetically''', studies have shown that starting with sufficient diversity, the minimum viable genetic population is ~~a few~~ hundred individuals
	~~9references)~~		*'''Genetically''', studies have shown that starting with sufficient diversity, the minimum viable genetic population is about one hundred individuals https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03856
	*'''Statistical analysis''' ~~Hein and xxx have~~ proposed 40 000 ~~people~~ in ~~2010, and~~ brought this down to 4 000 in ~~2015.~~(references)		*'''Statistical analysis''' Cameron Smith, an anthropologist at Portland State University in Oregon, proposed a minimum of 14 000 people, with a safer value of 40 000 in 2014 https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AcAau..97...16S/abstract. He brought this down to 4 000 in a 2020 paper (references).
	*'''Aurora, Kim Stankey Robinson''' Robinson, for his novel, Robinson showed a population of about 10 000 failing at maintaining a viable technological society and having to return to Earth.		*'''Aurora, Kim Stankey Robinson''' Robinson, for his novel, Robinson showed a population of about 10 000 failing at maintaining a viable technological society and having to return to Earth.
	*'''Elon Musk''' has proposed a target of one million people for a self sustaining civilisation.		*'''Elon Musk''' has proposed a target of one million people for a self sustaining civilisation.
	*'''xxx''' has proposed several million people. (The minimum number might be 50 million people? 500 million people?) If a Martian colony was cut off from Earth, and had to survive indefinitely with a low population, it would likely not survive.<ref>https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/70880/minimum-population-for-a-high-tech-society</ref><ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>		*'''xxx''' has proposed several million people. (The minimum number might be 50 million people? 500 million people?) If a Martian colony was cut off from Earth, and had to survive indefinitely with a low population, it would likely not survive.<ref>https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/70880/minimum-population-for-a-high-tech-society</ref><ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>


	==References==		==References==

	[[Category:Settlement Plans]]		[[Category:Settlement Plans]]

Michel Lamontagne at 20:55, 27 November 2022

2022-11-27T20:55:13Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:55, 27 November 2022
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	As part of a [[colonization strategy]] it may be an advanced step in the colonization program.		As part of a [[colonization strategy]] it may be an advanced step in the colonization program.
			__NOTOC__
	==Limitations of shipping==		==Limitations of shipping==

Michel Lamontagne at 20:53, 27 November 2022

2022-11-27T20:53:59Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:53, 27 November 2022
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	~~{{ColonyType}}~~
	A '''semi autonomous colony''' on [[Mars]] lives basically on its own production of [[energy]], [[food]] and [[air]], provided by imported technology from [[Earth]]. All vital systems are [[hi-tech versus lo-tech\|lo-tech]] and can be maintained from [[local resources]]. Additional goods are regularly imported from Earth:		A '''semi autonomous colony''' on [[Mars]] lives basically on its own production of [[energy]], [[food]] and [[air]], provided by imported technology from [[Earth]]. All vital systems are [[hi-tech versus lo-tech\|lo-tech]] and can be maintained from [[local resources]]. Additional goods are regularly imported from Earth:

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	As an alternative to a low tech society, a reasonable precaution would be for the settlement to stock a strategic amount of supplies of essential elements or equipment. The stockpile should be sufficient for the settlement to have the time required to develop local sources for the supplies. For example, digging for cobalt on Mars might be uneconomical compared to shipping from Earth. But if shipping from Earth stops, the settlement would develop local mines, whatever the cost, as they would become essential. This way a higher technology settlement could be maintained.		As an alternative to a low tech society, a reasonable precaution would be for the settlement to stock a strategic amount of supplies of essential elements or equipment. The stockpile should be sufficient for the settlement to have the time required to develop local sources for the supplies. For example, digging for cobalt on Mars might be uneconomical compared to shipping from Earth. But if shipping from Earth stops, the settlement would develop local mines, whatever the cost, as they would become essential. This way a higher technology settlement could be maintained.

	~~A huge~~ population is needed for a self sustaining technological society. (The minimum number might be 50 million people? 500 million people?) If a Martian colony was cut off from Earth, and had to survive indefinitely with a low population, it would likely not survive.<ref>https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/70880/minimum-population-for-a-high-tech-society</ref><ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>		==Minimum viable population==

	~~==Minimum viable population==~~
	What is the minimum population on Mars that can maintain a high enough technology to live indefinitely with only local resources?		What is the minimum population on Mars that can maintain a high enough technology to live indefinitely with only local resources?
	This is highly dependent on the available technology, however some studies have been made in the similar case of generation ships for Interstellar travel (references).		This is highly dependent on the available technology, however some studies have been made in the similar case of generation ships for Interstellar travel (references).
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	*'''Aurora, Kim Stankey Robinson''' Robinson, for his novel, Robinson showed a population of about 10 000 failing at maintaining a viable technological society and having to return to Earth.		*'''Aurora, Kim Stankey Robinson''' Robinson, for his novel, Robinson showed a population of about 10 000 failing at maintaining a viable technological society and having to return to Earth.
	*'''Elon Musk''' has proposed a target of one million people for a self sustaining civilisation.		*'''Elon Musk''' has proposed a target of one million people for a self sustaining civilisation.
	*'''xxx''' has proposed several million people.		*'''xxx''' has proposed several million people. (The minimum number might be 50 million people? 500 million people?) If a Martian colony was cut off from Earth, and had to survive indefinitely with a low population, it would likely not survive.<ref>https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/70880/minimum-population-for-a-high-tech-society</ref><ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>

Michel Lamontagne at 20:52, 27 November 2022

2022-11-27T20:52:06Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:52, 27 November 2022
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	A huge population is needed for a self sustaining technological society. (The minimum number might be 50 million people? 500 million people?) If a Martian colony was cut off from Earth, and had to survive indefinitely with a low population, it would likely not survive.<ref>https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/70880/minimum-population-for-a-high-tech-society</ref><ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>		A huge population is needed for a self sustaining technological society. (The minimum number might be 50 million people? 500 million people?) If a Martian colony was cut off from Earth, and had to survive indefinitely with a low population, it would likely not survive.<ref>https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/70880/minimum-population-for-a-high-tech-society</ref><ref>http://randompolicy.blogspot.com/2013/01/minimum-population-to-support-high-tech.html</ref><ref>http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2010/07/insufficient-data.html</ref>

	==Minimum viable population==		==Minimum viable population==
	What is the minimum population on Mars that can maintain a high enough technology to live indefinitely with only local resources?		What is the minimum population on Mars that can maintain a high enough technology to live indefinitely with only local resources?
	This is highly dependent on the available technology, however some studies have been made in the similar case of generation ships for Interstellar travel (references).		This is highly dependent on the available technology, however some studies have been made in the similar case of generation ships for Interstellar travel (references).
	**'''Genetically'''		*'''Genetically''', studies have shown that starting with sufficient diversity, the minimum viable genetic population is a few hundred individuals
	~~General risk~~		9references)
	Aurora, Kim Stankey Robinson		*'''Statistical analysis''' Hein and xxx have proposed 40 000 people in 2010, and brought this down to 4 000 in 2015.(references)
	Elon Musk		*'''Aurora, Kim Stankey Robinson''' Robinson, for his novel, Robinson showed a population of about 10 000 failing at maintaining a viable technological society and having to return to Earth.
			*'''Elon Musk''' has proposed a target of one million people for a self sustaining civilisation.
			*'''xxx''' has proposed several million people.

	~~A key question is: " here?" My ''guess'' is that it would be several million people.~~

	==References==		==References==

	[[Category:Settlement Plans]]		[[Category:Settlement Plans]]