User talk:Anas
Concept of the Different Continent
From Marspedia
Jump to: navigation, search
The concept of the international Program
Redirect to the Russian version of the Concept of the Different Continent'
Everything seems immpossible untill it gets done!
Ancient wisdom
«Human nature generally opposes to progress, аnd the elite should overcome skilfully this resistance»[1] The contents (to be completed)
1 Introduction 2 Substantiation of a problem situation
o 2.1 Civilization factors
o 2.2 Astro-ballistic factors
+ 2.2.1 Threats of the future
3 Substantive provisions of the Program
o 3.1 System requests to strategy
o 3.2 Purposes of the Program
o 3.3 Axiologic potential of the Program
o 3.4 Problems of the Program
o 3.5 Aspects of development of the Program
o 3.6 Directions and expected results of realization of the Program
o 3.7 Kinds of IPS
o 3.8 Dynamics of the Program
4 Bases of strategy
o 4.1 Principles of the Program
o 4.2 Visions on the possible organization of works
+ 4.2.1 Principles of design activity of the Program
o 4.3 Positioning of IPS in startup' environment
5 Heuristic educational environment
6 Technical realizability
o 6.1 Logistics of selection of a quota of IPS' settlers
o 6.2 Short analysis of a condition of researches
o 6.3 Startup results (a working out condition)
7 Expected results for Russia
8 Expected results for other countries
9 Hypothesis about the international format of realization of the Program
10 Summary estimation of investment indicators of the Program
11 Organizational and financial maintenance of realization of the Program
12 Notes
13 Literature
Contents
[hide]
1 Introduction 2 Substantiation of a problem situation 2.1 All-civilization factors [2] 2.2 Astronomic-ballistic factors
3 References
[edit] Introduction
The epoch of great geographical opening proceeds! It is by degrees found out that the mankind far has not reached reserves of the expansion on the Earth …
Desired new territories («Otherwise Continent» («OCo»)) – it, appears, at us underfoot … New Space - at us nearby, far it is not necessary to go! We know about this mysterious continent at all not more than about space … From the extremely superficial (in direct and figurative sense) uses of a film surface of the Earth as source of bowels it is time to pass to high-grade moving into as most valuable environment of human expansion...
Such not trivial decision quite corresponds to spirit of system requests of the anti-recessionary measures which are starting with aspiration to search and application of qualitatively new, is non-standard creative actions, adjoining on paradox...
At least, the price of the question will not exceed those enormous expenses which be required on space programs … Without tying directly under «an outcome of space race», the represented Program not only will serve as the effective accumulator, the compiler and the consumer of achievements of space workings out, but also to them will many promote, fulfilling on the plot, in extreme land conditions those problems of ability to live which the mankind will inevitably face at realization of interplanetary programs and colonization of space objects. It means occurrence «here and now» qualitatively new category of a seller's market and consumption. The market of planetonautics!
Communication with progress of astronautics exemplifies here only and by no means to one this branch is not limited. Any of the high technology branches – the materials technology, an artificial intellect, mechanical engineering, electronics, humanitarian spheres, etc., - receive in the new planetonautics' context enormous horizon for own development. That horizon which it is prompt and it is uncontested «shrivel» in modern «nominal model of terrestrial managing»...
Thereby, there are bases to believe that, for example, the idea of development of underground depths by creation in them of independent settlements as modules of moving into «other continent», has ripened extremely in time and is capable to serve as an adequate measure of overcoming of base problems of mankind. Basic barriers with point of view of engineering-technological reserves for this way does not exist. But problems of the is social-psychological plan, claustrophobia, etc. outcomes for want of as a whole in terrestrial tradition of strategy of social-culture dynamics find out an essential obstacle very soon. The matter is that development of "otherwise continent» will rest against necessity full-scale «socialization from zero», sociality formation in all its fundamental novelty and unpredictability. Mission of OCo' Program also consists first of all in advancing development already on the Earth and at direct sharing of all earth dwellers of culture of planetary dwelling …
The Program «Otherwise Continent» throws down a paradoxical challenge to the future. It drops out of the general linear logic of events (more precisely, pulls down sad despondency that is understood today by "a normal life»). At the same time, its ingenuity is deprived extremism as it leans on reached as comprehensible base for the further modernization: «all remains without changes, but there is a new quality».
The given Program has exclusively mobilisation character, establishing deliberately overestimated, asymptotic requests to all aspects of its realisation. So understood "asymptotic designing" proceeds as from obvious "a consciousness alibi": - not to lose sense of humour, and pragmatic understanding: that is suitable for extreme conditions, especially will be effective for softer conditions, for example, terrestrial way.
The Program does not require «an image of the enemy» for fulfillment of the mobilization function. And also does not put one country in dependence and submission on other therefore and to become capable quite a platform for the world solidarity. The Program has all аcceptability as strategy signs and promises qualities of an adequate anti-recessionary measure therefore is capable to become base for expansion unknown before the international partnership.
It would seem: well, it is too much dignities, where keeping balance defects of this doctrine that is necessary for a sober estimation?! The matter is that in the basis it essentially contradicts and is alien to monetarism that is why does not assume imperious urging on by minority of the majority. Autonomy is not pardonable! "System" will not sustain the «игнора», will impose itself by all means (the same neoliberal reception of economic murderers: «and here we to you кредитики cheap всучим, and there also will head to strangle on a root».
Therefore it is impossible to expect a miracle, too it is radical and rather offensive, this doctrine. "The knight's move", mortgaged in it when civilization modernization is started and developed from meta-level, namely – with a sight on break from film two-dimensional space of earth dwellers to the fourth measurement of planetary settlements, - this «roundabout manoeuvre» a boomerang returns earth dwellers to itself, allowing to see differently an essence at itself an event. It is not known that it is better, but in the face of the forthcoming threats proceeding from inactivity, this manoeuvre can cost smaller losses and promise the big findings. Time has come to make a choice of decision...
[edit] Substantiation of a problem situation
«As belief light grows dim, the outlook of people is narrowed. As soon as they get used not to think that will be after their death, they with ease run again into that complete, bestial indifference to the future which quite corresponds to certain instincts of human nature»
Alexis de Tocqueville
«It is possible to deceive people part all time and all people some time, but it is impossible to deceive all people all time»
Abraham Lincoln
"Set of threats should generate « positive fear» before destruction of mankind from impossibility of parrying at least one of threats. The probability of simultaneous display of several such events is thus rather great. On a basis of "positive fear" there should be rather obvious and clear motivations to integration of resources of the world community for preparation of strategy of a survival»
Vladimir Tomsky
Forcing of a new coil uncertainty is everywhere observed, including:
deficiency of warranties; uncertainty of decisions on parrying of global threats...
Conditionally it is necessary to allocate two basic factors, advancing global requirement for joint constructive actions:
1) "local" (All-civilization);
2) "planetary" (astro-ballistic).
[edit] All-civilization factors [2]
So has developed that to the beginning of new century on a world card does not remain any white stain, suitable for a habitual life of the modern person. With stronger sharpness it has found out, how much the Earth became aloud close for mankind occupying it. Technical progress, growth of birth rate and human expansion cannot be stopped. As a result desired fruits of globalism not only have not removed a sharpness of shared problems, how many have led mankind to comprehension own «growth limits», impossibility of the further expansion on a surface of the Earth counting on opening equipollent models of development of community within the limits of initial borders of existence. It has appeared that the world has again risen before a dilemma: or to begin new world war, altering borders and dividing resources, or to direct the development in a new channel [3].
Powerful shake-up and occasion to revision of strategy was the absorbed all world crisis. It is obvious that at all the sensitiveness, the current global financial crisis is only external display of much deeper and scale, almost universal change of mankind. This crisis means first of all the extremely painful aggravation of variety of old problems, and also occurrence of many new. At preservation of "the standard models of development», as a whole it will lead to awful aggravation of living conditions of a large quantity of people [4].
As a whole it is necessary to start with a recognition of that fact that the mankind has begun global transition to qualitatively new condition, the basic other organization of community different from those to which we have got used and with which traditionally ourselves we identify.
«Modern crisis has system character. Unconditionally, the world endures crisis first of all spiritual reproduction, but crises demographic, power ecological, food and technological were simultaneously developed. There is a change of technological ways and gradual transition to the sixth technological way which in XXI century will be extended 50-60 years; and it means transition to new quality of life on a global scale … Within the next years (till 2020) look-ahead growth of volume of the market of hi-tech production till 10-12 трлн dollars in the basic directions, and the market of power resources - to 1 трлн 200 million dollars Hence, if today a parity of the hi-tech and power raw markets equally 4:1 in the future there will be a scale change of this parity which will constitute 10:1 is expected. That is why the developed countries of the world focus the strategy first of all on development of world market segments of high technologies. [5]»
“One of the reasons of this crisis is not only the general collapse of world financial institutions, but also search by economic of a new technological paradigm" [6].
As we are only at the very beginning of this difficult way on an overcoming the crisis it is possible to allocate only its some directions. They are shown by the first and today seem key simply owing to the evidence and presentation. However there is no warranty that after a while, in process of overall picture clearing, they will not appear minor or even at all casual, not having the direct relation to occurring fundamental processes.
Growth observed everywhere «pictures of growth of trouble» (M.Delyagin) testifies to a devastation of traditional model of interaction of mankind with the planetary natural complex, which part it is. And it means necessity of transition to any new model of such interaction which for us is still not clear, but can require major modifications of a habitual way of life. Otherwise we are expected still больший «by growth of acts of nature and the climatic anomalies, advancing growth of complexity of the technological organization of mankind, increase in quantity not giving in to treatment or poorly diagnosed diseases, aggravation of a psychological condition of people, falling of quality of management, growth of diverse confrontations».
As current events while it is not known, clearly only will develop that the basic preconditions for reformatting of human company have already developed.
In the world outlook plan global depression endured by the world has bared is reserved a key problem becoming ripe long since – deficiency of a demand and a credibility gap to each other, - that depressing operates on spheres of a public life all without exception. «The condition which included modern mankind, has much more scale and universal character, than those or other as much as fundamental phenomena in economy. As a matter of fact it is a question of a basic change of the character of interaction of mankind with the nature, requiring basic change of all internal system of modern human companies»
Becoming aggravated deficiency of warranties has poured out in total «axiology corkscrew», the universal valuable crisis which has covered all spheres of a public life. The arisen general availability of the information has resulted thus and in qualitative growth of the people, capable to think conceptually, on the abstract themes which are not reduced to the daily; alternative senses leading independent search. The myth inspired by decades about power of information only even more has aggravated comprehension of crisis of the standard senses in weights, is is only temporary having delayed crash of active doctrines and seeming firm operating systems.
The existing management structure appears in these conditions in the face of new calls of time and all less capable, and it is destroyed quite visually by technological progress, and in most general view — information revolution. For the sake of own rescue, the management operating system is forced imitate, staking on destructive inherently technologies of formation the consciousnesses disappearing under the sanctimonious motto: «if it is impossible to change the world, change the relation to it». At the heart of these technologies - затушевывание realities, self-programming, virtualizating consciousnesses and, as a result, irresponsibility escalation …
It is essential that during globalization there was also rather unique phenomenon which was not shown never earlier for all observable history of mankind. The matter is that those technologies which, apparently, have as much as possible simplified all kinds of human communications (that, actually, and underlies a globalization phenomenon), have transformed process of formation of human consciousness into most favourable of popular kinds of business. «Popular» and simultaneously "most favourable"— means mass and, strictly speaking, an activity principal view if not all mankind, at least, its developed and successfully developing part. This qualitative change for some reason, as a rule, is lost sight by theorists of globalization, and meanwhile it is represented fundamental as changes character of human development. If earlier, on all extent of the existence, the mankind survived and developed at the expense of environment transformation now it begins for the first time — on all occasions, tries — to survive and develop at the expense of change itself.
Yes, ecologists, probably, will howl from delight: mankind, possibly, having felt coming nearer limits of admissible anthropogenous effect on an environment, the beginning itself to adapt itself for it. After all it, apparently, even more significant triumph of the nature protection approach, than voluntary mass failure of the civilisation blessings.
However it is not necessary to forget that formation of human consciousness at all levels of its existence — from individual to group — is carried out naturally, chaotically and, strictly speaking, casually. And thus it is not known not only degree of conformity of this consciousness of a reality, but also degree of its simple stability.
Probable loss or essential restriction of ability of mankind to knowledge for the reason that main object of chaotic and casual effect becomes the person as the direct instrument of this knowledge, brings a serious attention to the question on existence prospects. Thus that individual noosferno-shaped influence, quite demonstrably other everywhere observable phenomenon as consequences of prompt and universal distribution of technologies of formation of consciousness — drama decrease in efficiency of control systems as a result of forced use of those technologies by them for which they integrally are not adapted does not give in to the direct evidence.
Concrete consequences are diverse. The most significant represent the following:
self-programming at which the manager and a control system as a whole start to trust devoutly in own propagation even if they started it to carry out, accurately understanding its unauthenticity; transition from management of reality change to management of change of its perception; basic failure of perception of a reality in favour of perception of its information reflexion (first of all in mass-media); a slashing of a level of responsibility; sharp restriction and decrease in quality of "feedback", adequacy of a control system with operated company.
In the conditions of information universal distribution of computers qualitatively increases the importance of the creative activity connected with extralogic thinking, based not on consecutive application of logic conclusions, and on inspirations, thinking not theses, but in the images. The increasing significance is acquired by sources and correctness of the formulation of problems. It will mean that on a share of the person will drop out inaccessible to the computer of a component of thinking — thinking not logic, but creative on which basis the competitiveness of people within the limits of those or other collectives and companies will be mainly carried out.
Accordingly, the greatest success in a competitiveness — as in companies, and on a global scale — creative people and collectives will reach, their quantity becomes maximum, and they will start to play the most significant role. BUT: for creative activity it is as much as possible adapted, we will tell so, unbalanced type of the person. And simple statistical data about character and a course of life of creative people in the most different spheres of a public life rather convincingly confirm it.
And now we will remind that the night nightmare of any manager — labour collective (if at all not flight) шизоидов, — becomes in the conditions of the near future to the most effective and the most competitive! It is clear that the today's control systems generated in last reality, basically are not adapted for such situations — and consequently will radically be changed. As the control system directly sets principles of the organisation of human company, cardinal change of its character will mean also cardinal change of the company!
Further. A role of the genetic factor in ability to creativity it is significant above social — that is, a competitiveness of people among themselves and the social status of each of them in much bigger degree, than earlier, will be advanced by congenital factors not giving in to conscious correction.
Decrease in significance of social factors at growth of significance of factors especially biological for such «a public animal» whom the person is, means basic change of its most shape.
Thereby, the contradiction between the social status of the separate person and its accessory from a birth to this or that social страте, on the one hand, and its personal abilities, with other, will be qualitatively strengthened. The essence of change does not cause doubts: the social competitiveness, social selection will be already led on the basis of biological inherently parametres. Will occur «биологизация» human company. The social status of the young man basically will be advanced by its knack (or inability) to creativity, instead of riches (or poverty) his parents.
One of displays and direct consequences of the named changes of consciousness is the syndrome named above аксиологическим a corkscrew. Its action is interfaced to features of multidimensional perception. For example, two-dimensional consciousness of earth dwellers historically adhered to terrestrial realities (as reflexions of a film two-dimensional way of life) on an outcome of the last century has tried to run in "at once" to be pulled out in space as the third measurement, but «so it and has not apprehended» therefore there and has got stuck … the modern earth dweller does not feel this космичность as personal value and consequently does not connect senses of own life from its (space) comprehension and обживанием. Space is aloof from consciousness of earth dwellers, and its routine operation for телекомов, meteorologies, etc. are considered only certain as "an elementary bonus», pragmatically obvious and consequently not inspiring on personal partnership. At the same time, loss (is more exact, недостижение) romanticism for the inhabitant has turned back for the astronautics loss of the necessary technological lead advanced by ability to set locomotive backbone effect for set of allied industries and scientific development, социокультурного growth.
In the geopolitical plan the given syndrome pours out to inability to apprehend current transient from дипольной (bipolar) model of development to the multipolar world [9] that will paralyse mass consciousness of the in "very dangerous speed». People do not have not enough knowledge to cope with shaft of new problems. It tempts people to search for easy decisions for difficult problems. Such approach inevitably generates obscurantism that is confirmed with all military-political practice of first half of last century. At the same time, society globalisation in planet scales is inevitable also all forces on new to approach to a number of the international problems, their correct system statement on the basis of the international law more sharply, which itself requires deep modernisation for reduction in conformity with the new nature and sources of threats. If in the bipolar world the basic motivation for consolidation of resources was primitive, almost the bodily fear already by the end of the XX-th century the life has become complicated, now such motivation can be generated by comprehension of global threats which will generate fear of more difficult nature. (Unfortunately, all history of mankind was under construction exclusively «for fear», inducing it to transformations, so-called progress. Probably, it is inevitable our destiny – and not to live till times when not fear, and the blessing becomes a basis of consolidation of mankind).
System researches on stability of the multipolar world so also it is not turned out. Problem definitions necessary for it only started to be formed in the end of last century and have revealed variety of the fundamental world outlook and mathematical difficulties lying on a way to that model. Today the mankind has no necessary logic toolkit and global mechanisms of the conflict resolution in a new situation. The system of a world order, including United Nations mechanisms, has been designed, in the practical part, for bipolar model of the world. As statement of these problems infringes on interests of countries all without exception and the people on a planet, it is necessary to refuse power methods of the conflict resolution and contradictions once and for all.
The non-return point, most likely, is passed. Returning to the bipolar world is impossible or is interfaced to unacceptable risks in the form of the global nuclear conflict. The multipolar world generates set of geopolitical, world outlook, cultural-humanitarian and economic problems which earlier the mankind did not face. The mechanisms of the United Nations designed after the Second World War under a bipolar picture of the world, start to be scattered for the objective and natural reasons. Necessity to search for new designs мироустройства, mechanisms of maintenance of stability, procedure of search and a finding of compromises, maintenance of warranties is more and more realised. The basic problem is formation of conditions of trust centre to centre forces which concentrate round world cultural концептов, known since the most ancient times. In practice it is necessary to answer an earlier purely theoretical, culturological question – whether tolerance as a general rule is possible, whether dialogue and convergence of cultures is possible?
On the general background of loss субъектности [10], became symptomatic aggravation эгоистичности, accompanied капсулизацией, an individualization of people in the order private-household problems. «The consciousness alibi» at so to understood care of near comfort is considered the general instinctive personal aspiration to decrease in the personal risks covering is minimum admissible environment. (At the same time - a known syndrome: at total network scope – takeoff of the increasing alienation, cynicism and hypocrisy, «double morals» on the general background of loss of personally-confidential communications, mutual support and spirituality in whole [11]).
At the same time, operation of law of preservation of risks according to which their general size in the big system is approximately constant is known. Literally it means that, in process of decrease in unique risks for significant quantity of elements of this system, inevitably there is a rearrangement of their weight on more high level and, accordingly, to increase общесистемных risks. In particular, data of unique risks to a minimum increase общесистемные risks so that loss of stability and system destruction, as a rule, is ensured. It also occurs to mankind as a whole! So, provoking consumer moods, indulging instincts of creation of individual comfort of the individuals, the mankind has increased production of energy to such level when it has infringed upon climatic balance of a planet and has created qualitatively new global risks which scales simply do not give in to an estimation.
[edit] Astronomic-ballistic factors
It is impossible to establish unequivocally direct tie, but discussed above all-civilization factors of a global system impoverishment of a human civilization proceed against change and surrounding conditions of a planet the Earth in Solar system.
As a whole given conditions are characterized by that there is a probability of change of characteristics of a land life so that the life of mankind can cease. With the course of time growth of the population of the Earth, ecological and climatic changes can create a situation when defect of suitable territory for dwelling will threaten the further existence and development of all terrestrial civilization. Such situation inevitable changes of the sizes and activity of the Sun, for example, will create, displacement of magnetic poles, asteroid-comet threat which will extremely change living conditions on the Earth. Therefore the mankind will aspire naturally to moving to more comfortable belt.
Besides the natural factors, an essential role can play and consequences of activity of the mankind: the above-stated social and economic or geopolitical situation on a planet; the global accident caused by a use of weapons of mass defeat; an exhaustion of natural resources of a planet, etc.
The main, general problem for all mankind well-known also admits almost all international subjects. That is a problem of a physical survival of the person in the conditions of the limited resources for development and occurrence of new threats which were among earlier kept away or improbable. New calls force to complicate problem definition and to add to it conditions of maintenance of quality of life with certain parameters and standards without which it is impossible to imagine a sustainable development condition. Statement of such problem will require introduction and a recognition at the international level of new standards in relations between the countries and the people. The metrics of the international dialogue essentially becomes complicated. Process of such complication already goes in an uncontrollable and natural mode. Uncontrollability of these processes essentially reduces an overall performance of the international organizations, generates additional problems of mutual trust. The basic difficulty consists in necessity of consolidation not only positive plans and intentions, but quite concrete material and financial resources for the decision of problems and survival and development problems. Absence of decisions on consolidation and sharing of resources for realization of the general problems brakes today the international cooperation. Meanwhile an array of problems and threats, their growth rates and quality of threats become those that the mankind can not have enough simply time for duly and effective parrying of accruing threats the part from which can have irreversible and fatal character.
It is necessary to carry a number of menacing trends to number of such problems geophysical and космологического the character, comprising quite concrete threats for destiny of the person on a planet and, probably, life as that. Likelihood and futurology character of such models should not comfort anybody. Variety of real supervision, circumstances and the facts forces to concern such problems very seriously. The majority of these threats can require of mankind of pressure of all resource and technological possibilities of a modern civilization for protection and damage minimization at their development under the unpredictable or dangerous scenario of development.
[edit] References ↑ by Tomsky V.S. ↑ In the head M.Deljagin, V.Tomsky, Kuzyk B. works are used ↑ http://www.ldbp.ru/text/izdan/kolonizaciya.htm ↑ «Value of movement in the future concedes and loses on appeal of value of that preservation of the little and not the best that all the same is at us today. …» (by General director of All-Russian Public Opinion Research Centerа Valery Fedorov at V All-Russia Media forum of "United Russia" St.-Petersburg, on November, 20th 2009г.) ↑ Boris Kuzyk. Innovation development of Russia: the scenary approach// Economic strategy, №01-2009 (in Russ.) ↑ http://www.expert.ru/printissues/expert/2010/02/ne_otnosites_k_buduschemu_po_skotski/
